BlackRock portfolio shift: what the $2.1 trillion move means
Felix Nikolas Prehn explains why BlackRock trimmed long-duration US debt and diversified globally, and what opportunities that creates.
Felix Nikolas Prehn, economist and former investment banker
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BlackRock's recent portfolio rebalancing has been widely mischaracterised as a flight from America. Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, examines what actually happened: the firm reduced its weighting in long-duration US treasuries while remaining overweight in US equities, particularly AI-related companies. It also increased allocations across Europe, Asia and emerging markets. Prehn sets this against three broader shifts: a weakening dollar, which had its worst year since 2017 falling 9.4 per cent; foreign central banks selling US debt and buying gold; and international stocks trading at roughly 13 times earnings versus about 20 times for the S&P 500. He walks through five areas he is researching, including international equities, gold and silver, selective US tech and energy names, corporate bonds and REITs. He concludes that the US remains the world's deepest capital market but that sensible diversification and disciplined profit-taking are now more important than ever.
In this episode
- What BlackRock actually did with its US treasury exposure
- Why long-duration bonds carry more risk at current debt levels
- BlackRock's global diversification into Europe, Asia and emerging markets
- The weakening dollar and international stock outperformance
- Five opportunity areas: international stocks, gold, selective US equities, energy and bonds
- Gold and silver demand and central bank buying trends
- REITs and the case for falling interest rates
- Action plan: portfolio review, rebalancing and exit discipline
Transcript
BlackRock just moved $2.1 trillion out of America. Yeah, you heard that right. $2.1 trillion. The world's largest asset manager controlling more money than most entire countries is making massive moves right now. And this could affect your portfolio in ways you haven't even considered yet.
Now, here's what makes this absolutely critical. When an institution managing $14 trillion makes a move this size, they're seeing something the average investor isn't. They've got armies of analysts, access to data and connections most of us will never see. And they're positioning for what's coming next.
And here's the thing that nobody's talking about. Where this money is going and why it's moving reveals one of the biggest wealth transfer opportunities we've seen in decades. But here is what the headlines don't tell you. This isn't just about money leaving America. It's about where it is going, what it means for the global economy and the 5 specific opportunities this creates for you and me, the everyday investors. Winston there too.
So stay with me and I'm going to show you exactly what BlackRock is really doing, the full picture mainstream media doesn't give you, and most importantly how you can position yourself to potentially profit on these same trends this year and beyond. I'm Felix Prehn. I'm an ex-investment banker. That's Winston back there, the brains behind all the research of course, and I know how these massive institutions think because I used to sit in one of those rooms.
I'm also the founder of the GoDm Academy. We've taught well over 20,000 students how to invest more like the professionals, not like the amateurs who panic at every headline. Also the co-founder of tradevision.io where we analyse real market data, give you real up to date news on just your stocks.
So why do I do this? Because the media makes money from your fear. That's the business model. The more scared you are, the more you click. The more you click, the more ad revenue they get. It's as simple as that. But fear doesn't make you wealthy. Information does, yes, but strategy really does.
So understanding what the big players are actually doing, that's what makes you potentially wealthy. So today, I'm going to run you through exactly what is happening with BlackRock, separate the sensationalism from reality, and give you a clear action plan for your portfolio. No fear-mongering, just facts and opportunities.
All right. So, let's start with what you've probably seen plastered all over YouTube and X. BlackRock bolts $2 trillion out of America. The largest asset manager is fleeing the US. The beginning of the end, right? Go and bury the children in the backyard, that sort of thing, along with the silver. Sounds terrifying, right? Winston over there, well, he isn't too concerned about this and he gets concerned about squirrels.
So, what does Winston know that the clickbait merchants don't? What actually happened? Well, here are the facts. I'm going to cite my sources because unlike some people, I actually believe in backing up what I say with data. BlackRock manages $14 trillion in assets at the end of 2025, bigger than the entire economies of most countries. So, it's the largest asset manager in the world.
Now, did they move $2.1 trillion completely out of the United States? No. Absolutely not. Here's what they actually did. They went underweight long-term US treasuries. Let me break that down. BlackRock reduced exposure to long-duration US debt. Didn't eliminate it. They just reduced it. They still hold US debt. They just reduced the percentage of their portfolio allocated to that long-term US debt.
Why? Because when you have $38 trillion in national debt, which is the crazy number we're looking at right now, and interest rates are doing their thing, if you hold a 20 or a 30-year US bond, which is what we're talking about here, 20 or 30-year bonds, that becomes risky. Not because America is going to default tomorrow, but because the maths changes.
Think of it like this. If you had a choice between lending your friend just $100 for 30 years and he was going to pay you 4% for that, or you could lend the same friend $100 for 5 years and he would pay you 4.5% interest, which would you choose? Seriously, put it in the chat. Is it A or is it B? Put it in the comments down below. Which would you choose?
Well, if you are sane, you would probably pick number B because you get more interest and it's for a shorter duration because who knows what's going to happen in 30 years. What if inflation goes to 10%? Because you're going to be lending at 4%. You'd be losing money. This is what BlackRock did.
Now, the second thing that they actually did is they diversified more globally. There is a world outside of the United States which may come as a shock to some of you. I am just being silly. BlackRock stated in their outlook for last year that they are pursuing more country dispersion. Whatever the heck that means. Finance speak for spreading money across more countries rather than keeping it all in one place in the United States.
So what did they do? They put more money into the Soviet states of Europe probably. And I don't know this for a fact, but probably into war stocks because war is very profitable. Miserable for the poor bastards dying there, but very profitable for everybody else. They also put more money into Asia, particularly into AI infrastructure. They're also looking at emerging markets, Brazil and India. Again, a lot of AI infrastructure. They're not panicking. They're managing their portfolio. It's what any sensible investor does.
And they remained very, very overweight on the good old USA. So here's the part the headlines conveniently forgot to mention. BlackRock is heavily invested in US equities, particularly in companies related to AI. If they were truly fleeing America, would they be overweight US stocks? Of course not. They're being selective. They like US companies. They're just less excited about US government debt right now.
So let's break down why and what the opportunities are here. But to really understand the opportunities, you need to understand the 3 big shifts happening right now. So we know BlackRock isn't abandoning America. The opportunity lies in understanding why they're doing what they're doing. So you can potentially make smarter moves too, right? Make your strategy a little bit better because it's the world's largest asset manager. They know a thing or two.
So what are the shifts? Well, the first shift is the dollar is weakening, which is actually a good thing if you know what to do. The dollar has just had its worst year since 2017. It went down 9.4%. So, if you're going on your summer holidays to Europe, it's going to cost you 9% more.
But let me explain why this could actually be fantastic for your portfolio. When the dollar weakens, here's what happens. International stocks become more valuable for US investors. Companies that export goods from the US become more competitive and commodities which are priced in dollars like gold and silver, they tend to rise if you've been sleeping under a rock.
And last year international stocks crushed US stocks, right? They did very well. A lot of that's got to do with war, which is, as I said, uncomfortably profitable. And I'm looking at the Germans. I'm one of those, by the way, so I think I'm allowed to make silly jokes about it. Up 23% last year. Spain up 49% last year. South Korea up 76%, Japan up 26% which is pretty amazing. So, this is the AI boom and it's definitely also the war boom, which is, well, it is what it is.
So, the AI revolution, put the war thing aside for the moment, isn't just America. Yeah, Nvidia and Microsoft and so on, they're the big players, but who makes the chips? Taiwan. Who makes the memory? South Korea. Who has the infrastructure to run AI data centres? Well, countries across Asia and Europe. So, the global AI boom is spreading wealth beyond the lobbies in Silicon Valley and BlackRock sees that. That's why they're diversifying internationally.
And I think they also believe that the dollar keeps weakening. So, actually putting money into European money or some other country, you can make potentially twice the returns. One on the stock if you pick the right one, defence stocks, and second if the euro goes up, well you get more dollars for it, right?
And then here's the part I was not going to include because I know people fall asleep when you talk about bonds but it is actually that important that I did. So if you humour me for 30 seconds I'll break it down for you. The bond market is changing. The US is adding about $6 billion a day in debt. So, they're issuing a lot more debt.
Now, foreigners, those pesky foreign central banks, they're reducing their US debt holdings. They dumped like $48 billion worth since March or so last year. What does it mean for you? Well, it creates some opportunities here. Now, I don't think the opportunities are necessarily in government debt. I think the opportunities are in corporate bonds. There are some corporate bonds out there that pay really, really nice interest for pretty modest risk. Shorter duration bonds can also do very well.
So, BlackRock just looked at the uncertainty and thought, let's get rid of some of our long-duration bonds because they make profits on those already and they want to lock in those gains, which is, by the way, what smart investors do. So, I know this video is fairly information dense and there's a ton more stuff that we're going to get through here. BlackRock's moves, the weakening dollar, international markets waking up, the debt situations. So your brain might be spinning a little bit, right, trying to connect all those dots. So because there's so much information in here to
To get the most out of this, I also put together for you a workbook. You can download it for free at felixprehn.org/black. Happy colour, isn't it, that they chose? It's got all the ETF tickers I'm going to mention, the timeline of what we're looking at, the risk management, all that good stuff. It's completely free. We'll try to put it on the screen here for you so you can see what it's all about.
That's part of our free community, literally free community, no credit card required, anything like that. Just get yourself the report and then you can really chew through this in your own time. But if you are really serious about your portfolio and your money and you want to go deeper and you want to learn how I learned, which is from Wall Street mentors and insiders, then you can do that with us too. So if you're interested, you can book a free strategy call and I'll walk you through what that entails, what it looks like. You can ask all your questions. There's zero pressure.
I call them freedom calls because that's what financial independence gives you, freedom. So we offer coaching literally with my mentors, retired Wall Street guys who will hold your hand, who will walk you through everything one on one. So it's just a conversation about whether what we teach makes sense for where you are right now in life. We're not going to pressure you, but you can book yourself a free call here at felixprehn.org/freedom. Select your own calendar and so on. Again, maybe we can put that on the screen here so you can see it. The links are also both down below in the description.
Now, how do we actually profit from this? That's what you're here for, isn't it? Now, as we get to the fun part, what do I actually do with this information? I'm going to walk you through 5 specific opportunities here. This is not financial advice. I'm not a financial adviser. These are areas that I'm researching and finding interesting. Winston slept on, drooled on the research. But you need to do your own homework. You need to talk to your own adviser. You need to consult with a well-trained golden retriever. That's highly recommended.
But here's what I'm looking at. Opportunity numero uno, international stocks. For the first time in a long time, international stocks are actually cheaper and potentially more rewarding than US stocks. But we want to be selective I believe. So the S&P right now is trading at about 20 times PE ratio, price over profit basically. International stocks, and you're talking about developed international markets, they're trading at about 13 times. It's a big discount. And when you look at the dollar losing value because of all the money printing, that actually makes this twice as interesting and a potential recipe for outperformance.
So where do we look? Well, I give you a couple of ETFs and you can do your own digging on those. If you want exposure to developed international markets, so Europe, Australia, developed Far East, there is an ETF called EFA. One click, all done. There are a bunch of other ones. I'm never affiliated with any stock that we mention. So obviously do your own research, look at the fees.
But Europe is still interesting because they continue to increase defence spending. That German money printing is massive. Loads of debt-fuelled money printing to go into, basically Germany is essentially fighting a war with Russia. That's essentially what's going on there. And the Ukrainians are the poor bastards dying in the process. Banks are getting more profitable. This is the first time in many, many years. The European Central Bank, those lunatics have been cutting rates. They provide more stimulus.
We then have for a little bit more excitement emerging markets. VWO is one from Vanguard. There are a bunch of other ones. And if you want some specific country exposure, say to Japan, which has done very, very well, Buffett went very long in Japan last year, then you could look at EWJ. There are a bunch more of these ETFs that I've put all into the document so this video doesn't become 3 hours long. There's a South Korean one, then there are many others. There is something to do with the semiconductors, the Samsungs, the SK Hynix, all that kind of stuff. So those are all opportunities that I'm looking at.
Now you have to always look at the currency exchange risk obviously with those, but given that I believe the dollar is going to keep falling, there could be something in that. Now opportunity 2 is, well, precious stuff. Gold's had a monster year in 2025, is up crazily, and I believe it's not done yet. Now why is gold actually rallying? Well, central banks are buying like crazy. So basically foreign central banks are selling US debt and they're buying gold instead. It's a way to diversify away from the US risk, debt concerns and geopolitics and everything else, trade tensions.
And gold loves this. It's the "I don't trust anybody or anything" asset. It's an inflation hedge. So if all this government spending and the debt starts creating inflation again later this year, which I believe it will, gold traditionally does very, very well. So how do we play gold? Well, if you want some physical gold exposure and you don't want to put it under the mattress or you can't be bothered to rent yourself a storage place and all that stuff, which is probably the most responsible thing to do, GLD is a gold ETF, tracks the physical gold price. There is also a couple of others. IAU is another one, very similar, slightly lower expense ratio.
You can also look at gold miners. GDX as a ticker there, more volatile but it's got leverage essentially there. And then there is also silver which has done insanely well and I think will continue to, but again more volatile. And that's SLV, that's the ticker symbol there. SLV tends to outperform gold in bull markets but it's a lot choppier. So I'm personally still very bullish on gold and silver. Will it be choppy? Yeah, of course it will. Silver especially can be a bit of a wild ride, but I think it's a good diversifier for the portfolio. It's an inflation hedge. I think it's pretty hard to ignore.
I was talking to a gold and silver dealer yesterday and he said if you order now you have to wait for 4 months to get it. And that just tells you something. The US Mint stopped selling silver, which tells you something about where we are with demand. Not a guarantee that it'll go up, but you get the story.
But just because BlackRock is moving some money around, should you abandon US stocks? No. The US market still has the most innovative companies, the deepest capital markets in the best business environment in the world. But I think you need to be selective. I think the S&P 500 is expensive. The Mag 7 tech stocks are at valuations that don't leave that much room for error. There might be some exceptions. I think Google and Amazon could be interesting.
So where are we looking? I'm looking at companies that use AI to improve margins, not just make chips. So we're looking at your cloud computing providers. We're looking at your Amazon. We're looking at your Microsoft. We're looking at your Google. And there's a story going on with energy prices. Trump is basically forcing these guys to eat their own energy costs. And that'll have a little bit of an impact. But the beautiful thing with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google is they can just pass that cost on to their cloud users. So it won't really affect them. It's actually the smaller cloud companies that have locked in contracts, so fixed prices, that are going to get bugged because their margins are going to get squeezed.
Cyber security, I think, is still a big thing. And I've been singing this song for about a year now. I think the money is moving from chips to the companies that actually implement AI to make more money. Now if you want to be more conservative, there's of course the dividend growth stocks, VIG. Small caps, if rates come down, they should have a very good year. If you want to go for just a really conservative quality dividends, SCHD is a more kind of safe place to go. And I say safe, of course there's still risk with absolutely everything. Otherwise, if you don't want any risk, well, stay in bed and never get up. Probably you're going to die.
What's the 4th opportunity? I believe we're going to get inflation back, probably after the midterms because government data and all that. If inflation goes back up, AI power needs are still there. Energy stocks typically do very well. I put more of these tickers all into the handbook for you. So go to felixprehn.org/black and download that. XLE, utilities XLU. If you want to look at financials, they tend to benefit. IXG there, European banks are looking more profitable, although fundamentally of course it's all a basket case, but governments will bail them out. They know it, you know it. So it's really what you do with that information.
And if you want to get a little bit more exotic, the exotical investment opportunity, you're probably not a traditional bond investor. Very few people are. They're typically very dull people. But there are still quite good opportunities out there. There are corporate bonds out there, investment grade corporate bonds. There are higher yield corporate bonds. Bit more risk but a lot more yield. And then you can also look at international bonds. Again, I'll put all the tickers for you in the document so you can go through this in your own time. I also think REITs are going to have potentially a very good year as interest
Rates come down because they benefit. Why? Because look, they've been beaten up by the high interest rates for a long time. And as rates come down, what's the business model of a REIT, which is a real estate investment trust? Basically they borrow and then they buy real estate and collect rent, right?
So there are two aspects to this and one is rents might go up as inflation goes up and their borrowing cost goes down as interest rates go down. So they basically win and win and therefore the value of the whole business model goes up. So I've given you a ton of information here but let me give you the quick reality check because I'm not going to be one of those guys who pretends everything is guaranteed.
Right? There are three things we need to remember. Don't abandon US markets. This isn't about going all international and dumping everything American. Just think about it. The United States has the biggest stock market in the world. The United States has the biggest privately owned banks in the world. United States has the biggest pension funds in the world to invest in stocks.
The United States is pretty much the source of all innovation, at least all innovation moves to the United States. Why? Because you can get funding as a business, venture capital, private equity, Silicon Valley, it's all there. The talent pool is enormous. And where does everybody in the world want to invest when they grow up? The United States.
That hasn't changed. And therefore, I'm still very very bullish on the US, but I just wanted to explain to you what the big money is doing. I was going to say evil money, but then of course I know we're talking about BlackRock and I meant to say the big money that cares about you and the little people and looks after adopted hamsters.
So don't abandon the US. Don't dump all your money into new positions on one day. Why? It's hard on the mindset. If you discount average into it, it smooths out the ride. It makes you feel a little bit calmer. Makes very little difference on the long term, but it makes it easier to hold on.
And then very very importantly, make sure you know your exit plan. Where do we actually take profits? Because taking profits has become a dirty word, right? Diamond hands and all that. Taking profits is the whole point of it. So if the international stocks run up a lot, maybe take some profits or have an automated exit system that makes those profits turn not into losses.
Again you want to understand more about that, as I say have a chat with us if you want to really learn the rules. So here is our action plan. Have a look at what you actually are exposed to. We have a tool for that in our community. That's, in fairness, behind a pay wall, but it's still very very affordable, which looks at your portfolio allocation.
You're going to want to then look at what do you actually want to own, rebalance, look at the stuff weekly when it's going well and especially when it isn't and plan out some different scenarios there. And really the big one I think is to just improve your skill set as an investor because you spend all this time, all this lifetime earning money and then what do you do with the money? You just chuck it at stuff and you hope it's going well.
And I believe this is going to be a great year. I believe El President is giving us a glorious rally and I made a video on that a few days ago about basically the money printing and the debt and the tax refunds and the repatriation holidays and all that good stuff. But there will still be certain sectors which do a lot better than that and we'll link to that video at the end here so you can make sure you don't miss it.
But what we're seeing is a big shift in the world, right? It's not doom and gloom. It's just change. Change is good. Change is opportunity. But if you just keep doing the same things as you always have, I think you're going to be disappointed because I think the picture has just changed.
So two links for you. They're down below. Get yourself the full workbook, felixfriends.org/black. And then if you are more serious about your journey with money and uplevelling your skills, have a chat with us. See if you want to learn from my Wall Street mentors how we actually do what we do.
And by the way, I do no investment decisions Monday to Fridays. Everything I do, I do on a Sunday. It's all set up. It's all automated. And it means I don't need to worry and think about it. Every potential outcome is already taken care of. And it's a very very calm and happy place to be. And I know thousands of you have already learned that and are very very happy with the outcome which is brilliant.
So don't let the fear mongering, which is the business model of mainstream media, influence your financial decisions. Right? Focus on the facts and the strategy and the facts, always look at where they're coming from too because one person's facts are another person's fiction, which is just the truth even with government data sadly nowadays. So if you found this helpful, do these two things and I hope it's been valuable for you and I wish you a tremendous 2026.
In just a few days, the largest wealth transfer in American history begins. It is not a crash. It is not a bailout. It is a flood. $4.7 trillion is about to pour into the US economy.