Cash, gold and contrarian investing: Jim Rogers on markets

0:00So I have basically sold most countries in the world and I have a huge amount of cash in US dollars. I have some Chinese shares. I have some Uzbekistan shares. But for the most part, I'm a pretty simple person right now. Is near an all-time high. I own gold. I'm not buying now. But if they go down, I hope I'm smart enough to buy more. I've been around long enough to know, to have learned not to listen to governments or not to believe governments most of the time. Don't listen to other people, including me. Don't listen to me. You want to hear about my first wife? Oh, what a mistake. What a mistake that was.

0:34My guest today co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 73. And by the time he retired at 37, that fund was up over 4,000%. The S&P did about 47% in the same period. And then he got on a motorcycle, rode around the world twice, wrote a bestseller about each trip. He moved his family to Singapore because he decided the 21st century might belong to Asia.

0:59And he's been calling the commodity super cycles and the decline of the dollar for decades. And the record says he's been right more than, well, almost anybody alive. And he's just turned 82, I believe. And what he's doing with his own money right now might just surprise you. So we're going to be covering a lot of ground here today. And I want to make sure this conversation lands for everybody watching this.

1:23So what we're going to do is we're going to put together an easy to understand full explanation and report that you can download for free. There's a link down below in the description. And Jim Rogers, I'm very very excited to speak to you. I'm excited to learn from you and hear some of your wisdom. On our community here, our viewers are mostly US investors. They're probably 40 to 60 years old and they may be 10 years from retirement. And I know that most of them are sitting in US tech funds and index funds right now. So what do you say to people like that? What are you personally doing with your own money right now?

2:05Well, I am certainly delighted to be here. I am flattered to be here, it's exciting. That's great. What am I doing? Well, at the moment, nearly every stock market in the world has had an all-time high or near an all-time high. So I have basically sold most countries in the world, and I have a huge amount of cash in US dollars. Because when the problems come, many people think that the US dollar is a safe haven. It's not, but people think it is. So I have my money in US dollars.

2:45So you're sitting mostly in cash, literally cash or T-bills or something?

2:51Few shares in China, some shares in Uzbekistan, but basically I'm in cash.

2:57Okay. Interesting. Now, what was the last thing you sold?

3:01Oh, you think I remember? I don't know. I wish I were that smart.

3:07So you just pressed the button and you just exited the market.

3:10Yes. I don't remember the last thing, but once I decided it was time to sell, I started selling. And who knows? I sold nearly everything. I still have China and I still have Uzbekistan.

3:25Okay. I think this will surprise an American audience generally because a lot of my audience has been told one thing all their lives, which is buy the index fund or buy good stocks, hold forever, and never sell. And you're doing something quite different. So what triggered you to say, obviously with your tremendous experience, to say this market is too risky or there isn't the risk-reward here that I was looking for?

3:50Oh well, Felix, I make lots of mistakes. I've made many many many mistakes in my life. I hope I live long enough to make many more mistakes. If you want to hear about my first wife. Oh, what a mistake. What a mistake that was.

4:08I decided because as I looked around, everybody was making all-time highs. Everybody was having a very good time. And I have enough experience and certainly have learned enough to know that when everybody's having a good time is a time to look out the window and maybe ask some questions. So I looked out the window and asked some questions and sold. Too soon, but I don't mind being too soon.

4:35Okay. So you don't mind being too early. You overcome the FOMO of being in it. But everybody I talk to in the financial world mostly, they're all saying, well, AI and the this time is different approach. And it reminds me of, I started investing in 1999, which wasn't the greatest time to start. But in the dotcom bubble, the internet came about and it's a real technology that's incredibly useful and we wouldn't be having this conversation right now if it wasn't around.

5:08And now we have AI. And if you had simply held, I suppose that's what some people are thinking, through the dotcom disaster, you'd probably done all right, at least if you'd owned the index. So what do you say to people who are fearing, are we going to get another NASDAQ drop of 78%? Or are they going to keep bailing us out?

5:30Oh, it's good news. There's someone going to bail us out. They don't have to worry about anything. Wow. Hooray. Hooray. Hooray. Well, I've read enough and seen enough to know that we will have hard times periodically. We always have. I hope we live long enough to see many more hard times in our lives.

6:00And I do know that short of some dramatic disaster like losing a huge war, but even if you lose a huge war, it could be okay in the end. I mean, look at Germany. Germany lost a huge war.

6:13In 1945. Oh my gosh, if you'd invested in Germany in 1945, you'd be rich now.

6:21Very true. Even disasters can turn into a good time if you get it right. So all I can tell people is please be attentive, be alert, and stay with what you know. I do not want anybody to listen to me and invest in what I invest in. I want them to invest in what they themselves know. That's how you will be successful. That's how you will survive. Stay with what you know.

6:52And I love that you're saying that, Jim, because that's why I always say to people, don't listen to someone else. Don't look for the stock tips. You have to have a process you have confidence in with good risk management so that you know you will survive the next disaster which will inevitably come. Now, speaking of next disasters, as we're talking here, Japan seems to be falling apart or at least the carry trade potentially be falling apart, which is essentially people have been able to borrow in Japan basically at zero interest rate and then take that yen, buy dollars with it, and then invest in US assets and make a very nice difference.

7:30Now, as Japan's interest rates are going higher, that potentially unwinds and I think it was last Friday, the market dropped about $1 trillion in the last 40 minutes on the fear that this was happening. So now we have the US Fed opening essentially a repo line to Japan. What is your view on that? Do you see that? Does that feed into why you are sitting largely in cash?

7:54Well, I think I have enough experience to know that it's not good to bail people out, but I also know that human beings always want to be bailed out and they can usually find somebody who will bail them out. Now, I also know that when there is a disaster and something needs bailing out, it is often an opportunity. I mean, in some countries the word disaster and opportunity are the same word or the same symbol. I don't know about Japan right now but I do know that throughout history disasters and opportunities have often been the same thing. If you know what you're doing and if you have courage and cash.

8:41And cash, hence your cash pile. I mean, let me tell me if it's fair to describe you, you were a contrarian investor. Is that how you describe yourself?

8:49Oh, I don't describe myself that way. Some people do, but Felix, what I have found is, if you buy things that are cheap, that usually means other people are not interested, and so they say, "Ah, he's a contrarian." No, I just like to buy cheap things. That often means it's because other people are looking the other way, therefore they call you a contrarian. Fine. Call me what you want as long as I get it right.

9:21Okay. Is gold cheap?

9:24Gold is near an all-time high. I own gold. I'm not buying it now. I'm not buying silver. But I own both. But if they go down, I hope I'm smart enough to buy more. Gold and silver have always been of great value throughout history, throughout the world. I presume they always will be. You remember Jesus Christ? Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. That was a long, long time ago. Silver's still valuable. I still have some in my hand.

10:03So what's your process when you say if it goes down, you want to buy more? Can you be more specific on that?

10:10No, because I don't know. I will say that I have learned that when you turn on the TV or you turn on the computer and everybody's in despair about something or people are saying, "Forget gold. It's a has-been, it's finished. It's all over." When there's that kind of mood around about anything, it's a time to ask questions and perhaps to act.

10:38Okay, you continue to swim against the stream in a sense.

10:44In some way it's just finding despair, and when things are cheap, spare things are usually cheap. Doesn't mean it's right but it's a place to look.

10:55Okay. And you're holding your silver cup. Now that's physical silver. What are your thoughts on futures markets? Leverage, silver ETFs, COMEX, all of that. Lots of reasonable accusations being made that maybe they suppressed, for example, the silver market towards the end of last year with margin calls and so on being triggered. Does that feed into your decision-making? Are you concerned about the way the markets are being run and priced?

11:24I've heard that kind of claim about many assets for many years and I've read about them for many decades, centuries. Whenever something's collapsing, people always have good reasons, good explanations and good answers. I will just repeat that I have found that often when there's despair and pessimism about something, people should look around and maybe ask some questions and maybe act.

11:57Okay, that's good wisdom. Now, the US Treasury Secretary went on TV about a week ago and he said, "All the gold is there at Fort Knox." Do you take the government's word on it and does it matter?

12:11I've been around long enough to have learned not to listen to governments or not to believe governments most of the time. Quite often it's not that they're lying, they just don't know. So they talk a good game. These guys are paid to talk a good game. That's their job, make everybody feel good. Now, Scott says everything is great. I hope, I don't know if he knows what he's talking about, but anyway, I own some gold and I own some silver and I own some US dollars.

12:52Okay. So you mentioned most markets in the world are at all-time highs, pretty much around the globe. So is there anything in this world right now that you are watching? Is there a particular asset class or niche or geography that you're actively looking at that could get really interesting?

13:09I try to look at many things. I don't work at it as hard as I used to, but I try to be aware of what's going on. And if I come across despair in some market, I hope I'm smart enough to look further. Despair is often a good indicator. Joy, happiness, hysteria is often a good indicator too.

13:36Human emotions have been around a long time, and if you can watch them and understand them and then get your facts right, you might be successful.

13:46So are you doing this on a, I didn't say it was easy.

13:50You didn't, Jim.

13:55Now, you say facts and you say despair and you say joy. Do you have a fact-driven process? I see people in there counting the word, how many times the word all-time high or recession is mentioned in news headlines. Or do you have an actual hard process for that, or is it for you more of a feeling and experience because you've done this for so long?

14:16I wish I had a simple answer. Basically it's just experience. I hope I still, I still make mistakes, but it's mainly experience and watching the mood of the markets.

14:31Okay. So you're hunting for despair and misery and you get cautious when everybody is very excited about AI or SpaceX or whatever it is, the thing of the moment.

14:43People have gotten very excited about many things. Railroads were once wildly exciting to many markets. Many things. Electricity, oh my gosh, electricity was once the most exciting thing you could imagine. So much of this has happened before. I repeat, I hope I live long enough to see many, many more periods of wild excitement and hysteria. It's happened before and it will happen again.

15:12Okay. So what would you say to, imagine there's a viewer sitting there in Ohio in the US. He's 50 years old. He's got a couple of $100,000 in his IRA and 401(k)s and so on. He's probably mostly in index funds, bit of tech stocks I would imagine. What would you say to them? What is the next step for them to get out of this fear and get to a place where they become more skilled in how to read these markets?

15:43My main advice to them is don't listen to other people, including me. Don't listen to me. Stay with what you know. And if you're sure that things are going to be fine in the US markets, index funds are a fine way to invest. It's been demonstrated many times that most people do not outperform the market. And an index fund is a simple way to invest and to do as well as the market. You won't do better, but you won't do worse. That for many people is fine. We all want to do better than the market, but very few can.

16:21Very true. And what do you put that down to? Is it just a lack of skill, education, knowledge?

16:28We're all human beings. We all have the same emotions. We all have fear. We all have hysteria. We're human beings. Go down to the club tonight. You will see all the emotions known to man and you can follow the investments, whatever they are. Some of them are going to be wildly, some are going to be pessimistic. You figure it out.

16:53Okay. Can I run you through a few asset classes and just get your view on it?

17:00Well, I've already explained that for the most part I have, so most markets, I have a lot of US dollars in cash. I have some Chinese shares. I have some Uzbekistan shares. I own gold. I own silver. But for the most part, I'm a pretty simple person right now.

17:20Okay. What takes you to Uzbekistan? That's a fairly unusual market.

17:24Well, most people couldn't find Uzbekistan on a map.

17:28I don't think I could.

17:29Uzbekistan's been there a long time. At one time it was one of the most successful and prosperous countries in the world. You remember Tamerlane? Tamerlane was from Uzbekistan. In Japan, the word kamikaze is because Tamerlane was coming to invade and a typhoon blew him away and saved Japan. That's where the word kamikaze comes from.

18:01So Tamerlane at one time was extremely influential. He's gone now and it's changed there, but learn about Uzbekistan. They have huge assets, lots of big neighbours. Might be interesting.

18:17Okay. Very interesting. And are you not worried about inflation nibbling away at all your cash US dollars that you're holding?

18:24Well, I know that inflation's here. I know that most governments say, "Don't worry, we have inflation under control." They've been saying that for decades. Of course I'm worried about it because I know that the simple answer for most governments is print money, and we know that printing money leads to inflation. I know there's going to be more inflation in the future, but one must prepare for it. Keep some gold in the closet. Keep some silver under the bed.

18:56Okay. So your inflation hedges are metals, but you're still holding dollars because you still view the US dollar space as likely the next opportunity. Or is it that when things go wrong, people look for a safe haven? And for most people in the world, rightly or wrongly, in 2026, US dollar is the safe haven.

19:21You can tell them they're wrong all you want to. It doesn't matter. Most people still think that's the safe haven. So I have US dollars.

19:30Okay, makes sense. May I deviate a little bit into your more personal story if you don't mind, Jim? So you retired at 37?

19:37A long time ago.

19:39Long time ago. Yes. And then you got on a motorcycle and you rode around the world.

19:45Well, Felix, I grew up in a very small place. Very, very small place. My phone number was 5 where I grew up. That's not a typo. That's all it was, one number. And if you grow up in a place like that, chances are you never leave, which is fine. Or maybe you're crazy like me and you want to see the world. I knew there was a lot more out there and I wanted to go and see it. Some people wanted to be working all their lives and get richer and richer. What I wanted was adventure and to see the world. So I did it.

20:19Okay. And then what made you settle?

20:20My children are going to say, "Oh my gosh, what a waste. Why'd you spend so much time and money on adventure? Why didn't you make more money for us?"

20:32Well, I think you've probably done all right, Jim.

20:35Well, so far so good.

20:37So far so good. What made you select Singapore to move to? How long have you been in Singapore for?

20:44Well, I was, I've been telling people for many years, you should teach your children, grandchildren Chinese because it's a rising power and it's going to be the next great language in the world. And then I was doing it, but my daughter came home from the park one day crying. She said everybody laughs at her because she speaks Chinese. They all speak Spanish.

21:12So I realised that if I were serious, I was going to have to take her to a Chinese-speaking city where she would have to speak Chinese. We looked around. I don't speak Chinese. And here's Singapore. In Singapore, they speak Chinese and English. Bad English, bad Chinese, but still they speak them. But extremely efficient, extremely

21:35Well-run place to live, extremely easy. So here we are.

21:39Okay. And your family was just fine. And you said, "We're packing up. We're off to Singapore." And everyone was happy.

21:44Well, there was nobody except my wife and my baby girl at the time. So, yes, everybody agreed.

21:51Here we are. We're still here.

21:53Amazing.

21:53Gone away, but we're still here.

21:55Okay. Lovely. No, I get it. I'm based in Hong Kong most of the time, so fair similarities between the two towns. I get the attraction. Now if you look back over your whole career, and it's been a long one, is there one call where you go, "Oh, I wish I wouldn't have." Is there something you thought, "Oh my god, I completely got that one wrong."

22:21Oh, you want to hear about my first wife? I made many mistakes in my life. Most of them I look back and most of the mistakes are when I acted without really completely understanding and knowing what I was doing. The easy way is to act. But I have learned that that's usually a mistake or often a mistake and the thing to do is to wait and be sure and learn more and learn more and learn more and even then I make mistakes. How do you deal with mistakes? Do you define your risk before you ever buy something or you have some sort of automation set up or how do you deal with that?

23:06Well, I know people have rules such as if it goes down 15% automatically sell etc. Sometimes I wish I had those rules. I usually just wait till I hurt too much and sell often at the wrong time. But I usually try to make my judgment and my decisions based on the facts which of course is complicated in markets because there's so many emotions at work in nearly all markets and often facts don't matter. Emotions are more important which I have learned. I have learned to understand.

23:48Doesn't mean I'm good at it but at least I understand now.

23:51Yeah. No, I totally get it. I think every person who trades or invests their own money understands that emotions are the enemy. We all have them. It's a good job that we have them, but in the financial space, it's definitely not helpful. Okay. Interesting. So, maybe just lastly, of course you're free to share anything you wish to share, but what would you say to a beginner investor who's feeling iffy about this market? They're worried about the AI bubble. They're worried about the money printing and the debt and the war and all of that. What would you say to them?

24:26Well, the main thing I would say to everybody is don't listen to other people. Stay true to yourself. I'm not the first person to say be true to yourself. To thine own self be true. That's the answer. Please try not to listen to other people. Try to turn off the television or the computer. Try to make your own decisions. Very difficult. When you go down to the pub and everybody's screaming about how great things are, it's hard to ignore it. But the most important lesson I have learned from the markets is please don't listen to other people and listen to yourself. Be careful. Be careful. Be careful and listen to yourself.

25:12Okay. Sage advice, Jim. Now, you mentioned something there in passing. It makes me think of how you learn. How did you actually learn the skill of doing what you're doing? And I presume, I've worked in an investment bank. I've got a team of retired bankers and hedge fund guys and so on. And whenever I ask people they always say they name usually their boss or somebody they worked with where they actually acquired those skills. Is that the same process for you? You worked with somebody who inspired you and taught you some skills.

25:40I've met many smart people in my life. I've read about many many more smart people. I guess the main thing is I just learn from making mistakes. I'm not the first to tell you that experience is a very very good teacher. Making mistakes taught me a lot. I repeat, I hope I live long enough to make many, many, many more mistakes and learn from them.

26:07Yes.

26:08The key, I think, is that not everybody survives their mistakes, right? A lot of people get knocked back by years in terms of their retirement or their freedom because they make very large mistakes.

26:18Well, that of course is a serious problem. If you don't survive, that's pretty difficult. There are people I know who have automatic rules to cut their losses if things go against them. I don't have those rules and I often should, but figure out how to protect yourself. The world knows that staying with a loser is often going to cause worse problems.

26:46I don't have an answer. I just know we all have to learn.

26:50Okay. No, I agree with that sentiment for sure. Jim, it's been a real pleasure talking to you and learning from you and hearing about your experience and your take on the world. And actually, it sounds a lot more optimistic than I perhaps thought you might be. I thought you might be a little bit more just worried about everything, but I see you more as you're looking for the next opportunity. And you're thinking right where we are right now, there is possibly more risk than opportunity.

27:17Well, I know I should look out the window and see what I can find. There's always something. If one is diligent and attentive, all you have to do is find it. It's not easy. I didn't say it was easy. But if one is attentive and diligent, one might survive.

27:38Okay. Fantastic. Jim, I really appreciate your time. Thank you very much for sharing your wisdom and your lessons and your experience with us.

27:46It's been fun. I always learn and I hope I learn from you again in the future.

27:52Thank you very much, Jim.

27:54Thank you.

27:54Take care. All the best, Jim.

27:57Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

27:58You're in gold right now. The last few months have probably been a little frustrating. You did everything right. You bought the safe haven. You watched the world catch fire. And there's the debt. There are the wars. The money.