Gold and silver confiscation risk: the three-tier framework

0:00In the last 30 days, gold dropped nearly 9%, silver crashed over 26%, and a major private credit fund managed by the largest asset manager on Earth, not mentioning any names, well, they lost 19% of its value in just one quarter. These are not random events. They are connected. And today, I'm covering three things that you need to know right now.

0:23First, the real confiscation risk to your gold and silver. And is it actually real? Because it's not what you think. I'll show you the three-tier playbook that they're using and how you protect yourself. Second, the brewing private credit crisis that the IMF is issuing warnings about, about massive bank exposure and how BlackRock's derivatives could trigger a massive domino effect, what that means for gold and silver. And then third, I'm going to give you about a handful of mining stocks that I've been researching that I think look very attractive right now.

0:56And I'm going to give you the criteria, how to evaluate them. I'm not going to tell you to buy them blindly. I'm going to give you the structure so you can walk away better informed, FOMO removed, and opportunity seeking. My name is Felix Prehn. I'm an ex-investment banker. I've seen how the machine works from the inside. That's Winston back here who's our head of research. He drooled very eloquently on all of the research papers and is of course responsible for our risk management.

1:25I'm also the founder of the Goat Academy. Over the last 6 years, my mentors there have taught well over 20,000 people. We teach institutional strategies. And I'm also the co-founder of trademission.io. We're going to use that a little bit today to look at those individual stocks, which gives you better data and faster use than anything else out there that I've seen.

1:46And our mission here is very simple. We want to give regular investors access to the knowledge that's taught only to Wall Street bankers, the stuff they don't want you to know because, well, it might just level out the playing field. So, we're going to cover three massive topics here today. I just wanted to put it all into one because I think these are all equally important. A lot of people are talking about confiscation risk around gold and silver. I want to make sure you understand that fully. Second, the private credit crisis. No one's understanding that either. You need to. And then third, how do we connect these to create the perfect storm for your wealth?

2:20Right, so let's start with a thread. Everybody's watching and everyone's watching it wrongly in my humble opinion. But before we do, let me give you something even more valuable. We put out a daily gold and silver newsletter. There's also a weekly version of that. It's completely free of charge. It's just our way of giving back and keeping you informed of real information and a touch of cynicism perhaps. I don't know where that came from. Winston, was that you? So check it out, metals.gacademy.org. Links also in the description. And I'm very happy to say a couple of 10,000 of you already subscribed to that, which is very, very cool. And we're going to keep making that better and better and better and keep everybody actually informed what's really going on, not the news and the FOMO.

3:03Now, I see tons of videos around this topic. Everyone seems obsessed with the same question. Will the government confiscate my gold like they did in 1933? Now, that's the wrong question. It's like asking if the government will send you tax bills. Well, yes, but the methods will be different to what they were in 1933.

3:24You see, the government is run by honest, upstanding institutions that respect property rights. Well, yeah, not so much. And that's why they've literally created not one but not two, actually three separate systems to access your wealth and nick it because when you really respect somebody's property, you build three different ways to take it, right? That's the way it works.

3:47So, I call this the three-tier confiscation framework, but it isn't quite as dramatic as you might think. It is the modern version of what we saw in 1933. Now, tier one is the obvious thing everybody's talking about, and it isn't actually that useful or important. Tier two is the one they're actively implementing right now through stealth. And then tier three is the endgame that most people don't see coming yet. That's the beautiful thing about crypto. That's going to make us all free apparently. Yes, free from all wealth.

4:22So, let me walk you through the three steps just to make sure you guys are really well informed on this. So, tier one, what's it all about? It's 1933. And before we get into this, this is the least likely threat. Everyone's obsessing about it. It makes for a great title and everyone gets panicked, but we're not a fear-based community here. I actually want you guys to understand what's going on here.

4:43So, the conditions that made the gold confiscation of 1933 possible don't exist today. Let me explain why, because tier three and tier two are the ones we should be worried about. So in 1933, Roosevelt ordered Americans to turn in their gold. It was an executive order, president with a pen. And the US was on a gold standard. So every dollar was backed by physical gold. Well, at least they told you that. And the Fed couldn't print more money without more gold reserves.

5:15So what did they do? They confiscated private gold. They centralised it. They then revalued it. They made 70% of that revaluation. So citizens lost, governments won in theory, right? But the thing that nobody seems to mention when making all these fear-based gold videos is that compliance was abysmal. About 20% of private gold was actually turned in. Most people ignored the order and hid their gold. The government made a few examples, but they didn't really raid homes en masse because you start a civil war if you do that.

5:49So why will this not repeat? Okay, there are three very, very simple reasons why this is just nonsense and noise and people who are telling you this is what's happening, you should tell them what you make of it. Now I just noticed a door up there is open. How does that door get opened? Let me do something about that. You think one of the cats climbed up there and opened it? Entirely possible. They are very naughty.

6:13So okay, let me give you the reasons. In 1977, Congress passed something called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which removed the president's authority to seize gold except during a declared war. Not an emergency, an actual war. So, you could argue that the US is permanently at war with somebody or another. So, in theory, the president still has it, but it becomes a little bit more far-fetched.

6:38And then two, just think about the logistical nightmare. In 1933, most gold was in banks. It was centralised. It was easy to access. Today, somewhere between 33 and 50 million Americans are apparently looney enough to own gold and silver. Congratulations, guys. And it's stored where? In home safes? In private vaults? It's buried in backyards. It's held overseas. There is no central registry. Door-to-door confiscation in a country with 400 million guns. Well, have fun with that, right? You see how hard it is to do the ICE immigration stuff. This would be 10 times harder. So, I don't think it's going to happen.

7:21Now, the third is that, and this is actually the big one that takes the wind out of its sails completely, the US is on a fiat system, right? The Fed doesn't need your gold to print money. They can create trillions with the stroke of a pen. And private gold in the US is worth something like $200 billion. National debt $37 trillion which is 37,000 billion. So why would you upset the gun-wielding gold-holding loons that we apparently are for, it's a tip isn't it really? It's absolutely nothing at all. It's a rounding error.

8:01So the motivation that made 1933 happen, it doesn't exist anymore. So, forget about it as they say. If you get that movie reference, let me know down below in the comments. Now, we get a bit more serious here because the scary headline tier one is just bollocks. Just forget about that. And people who talk about that, I think they need their head examined. I mean, I could be wrong, but I think they need their head examined.

8:26Now, tier two, this is a bit more serious. This is stealth confiscation. And it's the modern approach. It's not about seizing the asset. It's about taxing them to the point where the effect is kind of the same. So picture this. Gold hits $10,000 per ounce, silver, say, hits $250 per ounce, and you're sitting on massive gains right now. You get a seller and the government says, "Congratulations, but we've implemented an emergency windfall profit tax on precious metals sold above its current price." So, you might have made a lot of money, but they might just take 70% off it.

9:18And do you think the outrage will be that great? Well, most people don't own gold. Most people will think, well, they deserve it if they make that kind of money. They just got lucky, right? They won the lottery. They didn't work hard for it. So, this is a possibility, right? Windfall profit taxes come fairly frequently, but it isn't a confiscation. So, apparently, it's morally just fine.

9:41And the framing will be, you didn't earn those gains. It was just you were just lucky and therefore, well, never mind that you were smart and did the research and actually protected against government mismanagement. Yeah, they're not going to mention that part. Now, has this happened before? Well, we had this on a corporate level. The 1980s, we had the crude oil windfall profit tax act. Oil prices went through the roof and the government said those profits are excessive and they taxed the difference between market price and some government baseline, raised billions. Different thing on a corporate level, not

10:17Personal. We saw it in the UK, the same thing with oil, that the North Sea oil windfall tax for example. And the reality is there is already about a 28% capital gains tax on gold and silver, right? So maybe you say, "Well, I don't want to ever sell it." That might be the smart move, but it is there if you are an Americano. No, I'm thirsty.

10:42Oh, and by the way, the taxes on stocks are lower. Why? Because obviously you're responsible by holding something that's been a store of value for the last 5,000 years. You should be gambling frantically with stocks. That's why we're going to get to those mining stocks in a moment. No, it's just Wall Street has a bigger, stronger lobby than the gold lobby. I think that's really the reality of it. Hence the taxes being lower. And then of course there are Roth IRAs and so on which are a beautiful tax dodge.

11:12Now let's get to the stuff that's actually serious. This is what no one's really talking about. It is this state level confiscation. So, everyone's watching the scary federal government, but California is floating a wealth tax, right? Illinois, New York, New Jersey, they're all watching and they're all thinking about doing the same thing. Why? Because these states are broke and they've been run by muppets.

11:33We've mismanaged the states for decades, right? Not a political statement. I honestly could not tell you what party runs each of those states except for California because the guy is fairly well known. And I'm not American. I didn't get to vote in your system. But I can tell you if the state is broke, it is run by muppets. And so they got massive deficits, they got pension obligations they can't meet, and they keep building silly things that don't work.

12:00So if you own gold and silver in say California, and they pass a wealth tax that includes your physical assets, what do you do? Well, you could move, right? You could go somewhere else, Arizona or somewhere. And well, they thought about that though. They have an exit tax. You leave the state, they tax you on unrealised gains, which is the most insane idiocy I've ever heard.

12:26I'll tell you why. Normally, say you bought gold at $1,000, say it is now $5,000, right? So your gain is you added $4,000 there, but you're not selling it. But if there is a tax on unrealised gains, say 30%, you're like, "Well, I'm going to have to sell some to be able to pay the tax." You see the madness of that? What does that do? Well, it stops people from building wealth.

12:54Anybody who's got significant wealth will leave. The Netherlands have just introduced this, by the way, again, run by absolute incompetent nitwits. So they're all going to move to, I don't know, Belgium or somewhere next door, Luxembourg or somewhere, because if you've got money, you understand the power of compounding and you understand that this is just like kneecapping you, Irish style.

13:19So this is not something you put up with. But they do have the exit tax which would still make people leave, but it means they collect something. So this is the threat we're talking about, right? This is not seizure. They're not knocking on your door and saying, "Give me your gold." They're just taxing you, right, when you make money on your good decisions. The tax the rich is always popular. People vote for it. The trouble with it is that when the rich leave, you got no money left.

13:47Look at the United Kingdom. It's probably not that united, but used to be called Great Britain. It isn't that great anymore either. It's run by again a complete lunatic. It was probably paid for by Dubai. But you're getting a little bit down the conspiracy rabbit hole there, aren't we, Winston? We should stop that right now and focus on gold and silver.

14:06So, this is the endgame. And I made a video on something like this before, but let me explain this very simply. This does not look like confiscation at all. In fact, you'll still own your gold, but you won't be able to do anything with it. Central bank digital currencies are coming. They're called CBDCs. The Fed, the Europeans, the Bank of England, they're all developing them.

14:30And the pitch is very simple. Digital money means faster payments. It means lower fees. And it's wonderful, isn't it? Just absolutely lovely. You're going to want one. Well, I want that about as much as a COVID injection. But it is essentially programmable money. The central bank can see every transaction you make. They can control where you spend it. They can set expiration dates. Spend this $1,000 by next month or it vanishes. They can apply negative interest rates. They can do whatever they want to your money. There's no longer really your money.

15:06Now, they can also decide what you are allowed to buy and what you are allowed to sell. Now, the government's going to tell you CBDCs will improve monetary policies and financial stability, which basically means we can force you to spend, track everything you do and buy, and shut off your money, tax you like we want, and if we don't like your behaviour, well, we can do something about it. That it's all in the name of stability, right?

15:33Yes. So, how does this work? How does this affect gold? Isn't this about crypto bros? Well, in a CBDC world, sounds like an STD, doesn't it? Try converting your gold into currency. So, you own, I'm going to do my best impression of a gold bar. That was actually pretty good, isn't it? Artist in the house. I painted those behind me as well.

15:56But the gold bar, that's a new high. You want to turn that into dollars? Well, I'm sorry to say there are no more dollars. Dollars do not exist anymore. There is now something called the digital dollar, which is a CBDC. So, you walk into a gold broker and you say, I want to sell my gold. And they say, yeah, I'll buy your gold. I'll deposit the payment into your CBDC wallet.

16:23And you go like, "Well, actually, I would like to do that, but guess what? The central bank has flagged precious metal transactions for review. Your gold is now stuck. You own it. It's in your safe, but you can't convert it. Or maybe there'll be that capital gains tax that'll happen instantly the second you sell it." Right? So, that's the slightly scary world that I think we are slipping and sliding into.

16:48Can you do anything about it? Well, you can move to Timbuktu where they haven't discovered CBDCs yet and live there. But I don't know how good it is in Timbuktu. Is Timbuktu a real place? Does somebody know? Put it in the comments down below.

17:02So, what I think is going to happen, it'll be more like a compliance nightmare. So, say you want to sell your gold, so you get digital dollars for it. And then they're going to have a KYC review. 3 forms of ID, proof of source, suspicious activity report, a blood sample, a bit of hair will be needed, that sort of thing. And endless questions about where you got the money from. And then there will be some sort of tax and fee on that. So, you still own the gold, but they may just try to mutter its power.

17:34So, now I've got you all depressed, haven't I? Well, to cheer you up and before we get into the private credit crisis and then the actual opportunity, and of course you can skip around these videos, but you're going to miss the story and probably miss a lot of Winston. The biggest mistake I see retail investors do, and I've looked at thousands of portfolios because I'm privy to those of some of my students, and my mentors and I have reviewed those, and the biggest problem is always like, why didn't you sell when you were 80% up or 100% up and now you're 30% down or 70% down.

18:06And loads of those examples happens in every bubble, right? In every bull market, you get these explosive growth up and then you see the collapse and people don't know when to get out. So, I'm going to fix that for you. And my promise to you is if you join me for this live training on Saturday, you will never have a really big loss again. And I can promise that with great confidence because it's actually very simple to learn.

18:32So if you go to felix.org/training, grab yourself a seat and show up on time because the last time we did one of these sessions, we hit the room limit which is 3,000 people and then people can't get in. So, sign up early and then show up early as well to make sure you actually get the benefit of that. And I'll just be teaching you basically and it'll be fun and you can ask me a million questions and so on about what we do and how we do it and my mentors and everything else.

18:57But let's talk about the little thing that the IMF is warning us about, BlackRock, all that stuff. Now, if you followed the silver story, there were massive forced liquidations. There were margin calls and there were early tremors of a credit crisis that has the International Monetary Fund issuing warnings, right? We saw some banks who were teetering on the brink. We saw the Fed pump money into those banks.

19:24So, let's start at the top here. Let's start with the CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Those are the good folks that look after all the orphans, bunny rabbits and kittens in the United States. They also happen to be the place where gold and silver futures are traded. Now they raised their margin requirements and when they raised their margin requirements, what happens? Well, the price of silver and also gold, it went down very significantly.

19:57How does this happen? Anybody who trades with leverage, and think about the leverage these hedge fund lunatics trade, that could be a 20 to 1 leverage, which means if the CME raises their margin by just 2%, it doesn't mean you need 2% more money. It means you need 40% more money. It's 20 times what it is, and if you don't have the 40% extra cash lying around, well, you have to sell. Now, if you are the kind of inmate who leverages their account by 20x, likelihood is you haven't got much cash lying around, otherwise you wouldn't be doing something quite as insane as that.

20:40And of course, the timing of these margin hikes is always coincidental, right? They never seem to raise margins when prices are falling, only when they're rising. It's almost as if somebody doesn't want those prices to go up because they're short. Of course, the CME would never coordinate with large banks to manipulate prices. They are far above that. As I said, they are very good upstanding members of society.

21:05But a different story altogether. JP Morgan, UBS, Barclays, they've all been fined by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for manipulating precious metals markets. Obviously, a different story. So it is a documented fact. They paid fines, they kept operating, and some people might say they might do it again. That would of course not be me because I know they wouldn't do that because they all want to do the right thing.

21:34But here is where it gets a little bit more serious. There is something bigger out there and it is called the private credit crisis, which sounds about as exciting as watching paint dry. But you see, the most dangerous crisis, and this is literally what my mentors told me, the most dangerous are the ones that no one's watching. So in 2007, if you talk to people about subprime mortgages, they would look at you and go, "You should get a life, mate."

22:02And today that is private credit. So what is it? It's loans made by non-banks, hedge funds, private equity firms, asset managers. And this is now about a $1 trillion market. Now it is opaque. There is no transparency. There's no public reporting. There's no banking oversight and no one actually knows what these loans are, who owns them, who they were lent to, complete opacity.

22:37But the problem is that these loans, yes, they're done by hedge funds, private institutions, but where do they get the money from that they lent out, right? So think about it this way. You have a private company that wants money. You have some hedge fund who wants to make a lot of money and they lend them the money, right? Where does the money come from though?

23:02Well, this is where it gets really exciting. Banks. So, the banks have a lot of regulation. It's very difficult for them to loan money. There's all sorts of nonsense they got to go through. But if they lend the money to a hedge fund who then lends it to Mr Broke, well, the bank doesn't have the exposure to Mr Broke. The bank only has the exposure to the hedge fund. You see the idea? It reminds me a little bit of 2008.

23:28And maybe you think, oh, this is hypothetical. No, actually, there is a company called Tricolor Holdings. They're a subprime auto lender. They went bankrupt. First Brands Group, which is a car part supplier, they're struggling with their debt. Subprime auto borrowers delinquencies on record levels. These are the early tremors, right? We haven't seen the earthquake yet, but these are the early tremors. But of course, the private credit industry will tell you that their models are sophisticated, they are thorough, they're diversified, and you shouldn't worry about a thing, which is a bit like what they said in 2007.

24:01Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room, which is a little bit rude to elephants because this is about BlackRock. They're the largest asset manager on Earth. They manage billions of dollars across every sector, they're in kind of everything. And they have a fund called the TCP Capital Fund. It's one of their private credit vehicles and it suffered a loss of 19% of its assets in the last quarter. So when the most sophisticated, handsome asset manager on the planet, BlackRock, is losing about a fifth of its fund's value in just 3 months, that's a little bit of a warning sign, don't you think? I think that's a little bit of a warning sign. I'm a little concerned about it. Winston, are you concerned about it?

24:49Not so much. But he does a very good risk management. But it gets a little bit more dangerous than that, and it is about derivatives. Private credit is tied to the banking system through a web of derivatives. They're called credit default swaps. If you watched the movie about the 2008 crash, you might have heard that they used a Jenga puzzle to explain it back then.

25:11And in 2008, remember AIG, American Insurance, whatever, they needed $180 billion bailout, billion with a B, because they had some weird derivatives exposure that clearly they hadn't understood. So, banks are very deeply connected to private credit, but it's indirect. But it does mean when it blows up, if it blows up, the entire banking system will need another bailout. And when the banks fail, who pays for it?

25:45Well, do you remember Cyprus? This is a bit of an extreme example. In Cyprus, the banks failed and the government didn't just bail them out. They did a bail-in. Now, what is a bail-in? It's not as good as it sounds. It's where the government take money from depositors, as in you. And what they did in Cyprus, they took money from all the filthy rich. Everybody with more than €100,000. That's the European monkey money equivalent of the dollar. If you had more than €100,000, they would steal 47.5% of that money as a you should have not been this rich kind of taxation, and they took it out everywhere, not just investing accounts, savings accounts. So money you thought was safe.

26:33Now maybe you think, oh that won't happen in the US because they've always bailed us out very very generously. Well, there is a legal framework for bail-ins established after 2008. It's called the orderly liquidation authority. So under certain conditions, the FDIC, which insures your deposits, can convert your deposits to equity in a failing bank. So your savings become stock in a bankrupt bank, which is brilliant, isn't it, for protection. It's just what you want. You want to own part of a failed bank, but I'm sure it'll never be used, right? Inflation is also transitory.

27:13So, this is a story that's going to continue. I'll keep you up to date with that. If you like, if you rather not hear about it, that's up to you. And in all crisis, there are some beautiful opportunities. And when it happens, and if it happens, I'll tell you about the opportunities that are happening at the time. Now, would it be good for gold and silver? Probably. But we leave it at that for the moment.

27:33Now, I want to walk you through some opportunities because I think I've depressed and shaken you enough. So, let's look for some ways to make some money here. Right. So Winston has uncovered some good stocks potentially, specifically mining stocks, and I think people find the whole mining stock thing quite overwhelming because it's a lot to take in. So let's dig into some of these and also give you the framework of how we do that.

27:57Now you might think why not just buy physical gold and silver. Let me give you the simple version. Mining stocks give you leverage to metal prices. When say gold prices go up by 10%, a well-run gold miner will see its stock price go up 30 to 50% perhaps, a lot of promise, what it's been doing last year. Why? Because their costs are relatively fixed. Think about it. To dig gold out of the ground does not become more expensive because the gold is more valuable. So an increase in gold prices flows almost directly to their profits.

28:36Now, the flip side is that when the gold price drops, miners drop harder. So, it is a double-edged sword, which is why risk management is always so important to actually keep your monies. And if you want to learn more about that, join me on Saturday at felix.org/training.

28:52But let me give you a number example, right? So, say the miner's cost to dig out an ounce of gold is $1,200. So, if the gold price is say $2,000, I know it's much higher than that, but just keep the maths simple. How much do they make? Well, they make an $800 profit. Yes, you with me so far.

29:21And what happens if gold just goes to $2,500? Well, they now make not $800, but they now make $1,300 profit. That, my friend, is a 62% increase in profit from a 25% increase in gold. That's the leverage they have, right? That works in reverse, too, which is why you need to be selective and have good risk management. But this is why people buy gold mining stocks.

30:00So let me give you the framework that I use to look at gold miners. Now to start with we look at where's the money flowing. We talked a lot about that. We did a live session a little while back, but I'll be looking at a stock chart or two together as well. But these are the institutional investing framework that I want to pass on to you and you might want to write these down. There is a thing called all-in sustaining costs, AISC, basically how much does it cost including everything to get 1 ounce of gold or silver out of the ground. Lower is definitely better, needs to be significantly lower than the price of

30:33Gold or silver, otherwise they won't make any money. That's number one. Number two is production growth. Is the company growing their production or are they declining? A miner with expanding output will see massive gains if metal prices rise. A miner with a depleting reserve is a melting ice cube really. So stay the heck away.

30:57Then the third is jurisdictions. Now a lot of mines are in tinpot countries like Canada or Australia. I've just taken the mickey out of you guys. But what I mean of course is if your mine is in say the Congo versus Canada, well, where would you rather your mine be? I think the moose up north are a little bit more predictable than the Congolese, and I don't know any Congolese so I can't really judge them, but it just seems more unpredictable. Think about tax laws, permits, nationalisation, all that stuff. So the location matters.

31:38So more first world, less risk usually, unless it's run by some lunatic commissar, but generally speaking, lower risk. The fourth thing is balance sheet. You want relatively low debt and you want lots of cash. It's quite simple. Can they survive a dip in the gold price or in the silver price? For that they need some money.

32:04And then fifth, and this is probably the most important, as my fellow countrymen say, I'm German. You may now take the piss or just tune out completely, which would also be perfectly understandable. The two French viewers are going, "Let's run away. I do not want to watch this man."

32:22So what's different? A producing mine that spits out gold and silver every day, or a project that is in development that needs financing but it may find some really really good gold. Well, the producers are obviously the lower risk. The developers have a lot of potential but they can also go to zero. So that's very important.

32:44Now let me run you through some of these stocks with our framework and we're going to kick us off here with the established producers. Not the Looney Tune stocks, the established producers. They're already mining. They're generating cash. They are your lower risk options in the mining space. Now, is there still risk in the mining space? Heck yeah. So you always need to understand your position sizing, your risk management, where you exit, and all that good stuff.

33:12Now, AGI is called Alamos Gold, which sounds like a rental car company, but it is in fact a Canadian gold producer. They have 3 operating mines, 2 in Ontario and 1 in Mexico. And if you buy that gold that comes with a bottle of tequila.

33:31Now Alamos released their guidance for the next 3 years and they're saying they're going to produce 46% more by 2028. That's of course guidance. It isn't necessarily going to happen. But they are going to spend a lot of money to make sure that they get a million ounces per year out of their ground, which is pretty cool. They've got free cash flow. It cost them about $1,200 to $1,300 to get gold out of the ground. That's the AISC number I was talking about.

34:02And they're spending quite a lot of money, which means less immediate returns, but if that spending turns out to be well spent, they could make a lot more money down the road if you have a little bit of patience.

34:16Now stock number 2 is Fortuna Mining. Fortuna of course meaning good fortune, luck sort of thing. Latin. And the ticker symbol is FSM. I'm not allowed to write any more. Apparently they said enough, Felix, wrap it up. See, seriously, I'm not allowed to write any more. Hang on. They shall not defeat us quite as quickly as that. We have another writing device. There we go. FSM.

34:45Now they're actually called Fortuna Silver Mining, which is what the S stands for. But 90% of their revenue comes from gold. So a bit of an odd name. They have 3 main mines. One in Côte d'Ivoire, which is on the African west coast, one in Argentina, and one in Peru. Geographically definitely diversified. Africa, South America. So no single country risk.

35:14Still, they're not in Canada if you know what I mean, if you want a little bit more stability. So it's a little bit more far afield. And the stock is up pretty significantly actually. Let's have a look at the stock price together because I think that'll be quite useful.

35:32So if I open the stock chart here, what do you see? Well, I see a stock that has done what I always call the heartbeat pattern, which is what I was taught. And we had a little bit of a breakout up here, came back down. So we're basically still in the same pattern. So for me there would be two possible entry points. One would be when we break out of this line here and the second lower risk version would be, where was the highest close, would be here, when we break out of that line.

36:07And I'm not telling you to buy it, but that's the way I look at it. Why do I look at it like that? Well, because I'm waiting for the big money to actually buy the stock before I buy the stock. We can do that with conditional orders and so on. And an easy way to keep track of that would be just to add it to our watch list here. I've got a pretty major watch list in TradeVision here. I just click that button, add it to the watch list. There we go. And now it's on my watch list.

36:33And that's so we can keep track of all of them. And then one of the fun things with that is that when we then have a heat map for all our silver stocks, plus also we can track the news of all of our silver stocks which will also pop up on our phones because we get news alerts. Of course I haven't got any right now, but you get the idea. They pop up on your phones the second something happens. And it gives you a pretty good idea.

36:57So there is Fortuna here, 6.7% up. But let's plough through and look at the next one. Stock number 3, GAU, Galiano Gold. And this is a smaller company, much smaller market cap, $670 million. So small cap means the price can move a lot more, higher risk, higher returns. And they have a mine in Ghana.

37:18Now why does that look attractive? It's a turnaround story. So they're spending a little bit of money, $17 million on exploration. They are targeting underground resources there. And they've got some pretty impressive data that they've come out with. They've seen about 3.4 grams of gold per ton, which sounds tiny, but that looks pretty good.

37:42We are going to get apparently a new estimate on this new resource this month. So you might want to watch that story. Again, you might want to literally just pop that, add that to the watch list here. So we just type GAU in here, add it to the silver watch list. You can of course make your own and now that's on there and that way you will get informed when it happens.

38:07Now of course there's a risk to it. Single asset, all the production comes from one mine. If anything goes wrong in Ghana, there's not a lot of backup. Although Ghana is one of the more well-run stable countries in Africa from what I've seen, and I've got some very good Ghanaian friends who are lovely people. Not that that should really affect our investment thesis.

38:27But let's look at some stuff that's a bit more exciting. So these are the development stories, companies that aren't producing yet, but they could become mines. These are very high risk, very high potential. So how do I deal with that? Well, put a very small amount of money into them. That's what I do. I'm not telling you to put anything in. I'm not a registered financial anything. I don't give you financial advice. Winston might be registered as a very lovely little hound, but that's about the only registrations you find around here.

38:52So here is one, and it's called NFGC, New Found Gold Company. That is one of the highest grade gold discoveries we've seen in recent years. And it is in Newfoundland, Canada. And that might put you off. That's there.

39:06It looks attractive because we're looking at 500 grams per ton. And you saw what we're looking at here was 300 grams. This is 500 grams. This is insanely dense levels of gold and they're only digging 2 metres down into the ground and that's really incredible. So most gold mines will bring a couple of grams per ton. This is truly truly off the charts, which is why people are excited by it.

39:37Now we're expecting the first gold in 2027, 18 months away. They have a permit for the milling facility. It's called the Pine Cove. It's in Canada. Very mining friendly, the Canadians. Say whatever you like about the Canadians. Canadians are lovely people. And I just generally take the piss out of everybody. So don't be offended, my Canadian friends. What's the risk? Pre-revenue. They're going to need some money and they're going to pull it off. So there'll be some dilution and all that stuff. So there's definitely some risk there.

40:10Now the next stock, VGZ, which is Vista Gold. Very pure leverage play on gold prices. They are a single asset development company focused on a project in Australia. I can't do an Australian accent. I work for an Australian bank. I still can't do the accent. It's a terrible story. And why does it look attractive? Because they have a mine which is called Mount Todd and it is one of the largest underdeveloped

40:38Gold deposits in Australia. Now at a gold price of $2,500 the company should be worth about $1.1 billion. Gold's worth a little bit more than that. So you can do the maths on that, but they have zero revenue and the timeline for getting out of the ground is about 2029, 2030. Australians, pretty chilled people, bit laidback and all of that.

41:00And then we have New Pacific Metals, ticker NEWP, and that's the silver play. They're advancing 2 of the world's largest undeveloped silver projects in Bolivia called Silver Sand and Carangas. And why does it look good? Because well, if you're bullish on silver, these are massive silver sources. Now, they have managed to remove illegal miners from their mine, which is good. They got core protection. The new Bolivian government seems supportive of foreign people digging up silver.

41:34Now, the stock's up quite a lot. I'm not going to lie to you on that one. I'll show you the stock chart. Always obviously zoom out a little bit. But it's also been, if you zoom out a little bit more, it's an interesting pattern, isn't it? It's an interesting pattern.

41:51And this is funnily enough the same sort of pattern that we actually look at. Something that's done nothing for a very, very long period of time and is starting to show signs of breaking out. I think it's still a little early, but it's something that I'm going to keep watching. And it's of course gone down a bit because silver prices dipped a little bit. But this recovery trend here is still pretty impressive. And the volume, which means the money that's flowing into this, is also pretty impressive compared to the little volume that was pouring into it when it was going absolutely nowhere.

42:20But I'm sorry, my Bolivians. Bolivia is not exactly a stable country. They have a history of nationalisation. Community relations are well, and it is, silver is more volatile than gold. So high risk but the potential is potentially there, right?

42:39So there you have it. You have your risk framework. The lower risk ones, obviously there's risk with everything, AGI, FSM. The medium risk guys would be GAU. The higher risk plays, you got 3 of them there. They're the development stage guys. This is not financial advice, right? Mining stocks is not the same thing as just owning gold. It is a much higher risk thing. So make sure you do your own research. Make sure you come to your own conclusions.

43:03And if you just want protection, physical ownership is the best place to be. I would not get scared out of my gold and silver because of these confiscation rumours. Yeah, they might tax it, but I don't think they're going to steal it off you outright. If you are invested in miners, be in different jurisdictions, not just one. And if you hold gold and silver and you hold substantial amounts of it, you might want to put it into different jurisdictions too, private storage. And try to be as close as possible to your gold and silver.

43:36So I know some people buy it through a broker who have their storage facility, which probably somebody else owns. So now that you have a contract with a broker who has a contract with a storage facility, how close are you to that gold? Are you allowed to go and see it? That kind of thing. So think about those things because I'm a bit suspish.

43:55And then if you are in the United States, Roth IRAs are pretty cool place to be. Obviously I'm not a tax attorney, so talk to your tax planners with that. And stay informed with what's going on here. This space is going to keep changing, especially if gold and silver prices continue rallying as they may well do, and the government is desperate.

44:16Now by understanding what might happen, you are already better placed than 99% of people. That's always our goal here. And if you want to take it further and learn how we're going to really focus on profit taking and how to avoid large losses, because both of them are very, very important, and I think it's how we keep the money rather than handing it back to the buggers on Wall Street. Join me on Saturday at phoenix.org/training. That'll be a free training session. We'll go probably for 90 minutes, maybe even 2 hours. We do a big Q&A and that kind of thing.

44:51And I love doing those sessions. I hope you get a ton of value out of it. I'm sure you will. And if you got some value out of this video, well, all I ask is you share it with somebody. Don't click nothing and whatever. Just share it with somebody. That will be the most useful thing. And if you have one of these guys, give them a cuddle. All the best.

45:07The world's largest silver exchange, COMEX, has 103 million ounces of silver available for delivery right now. And just in a month's time,