Gold price signals: four patterns before every major rally

0:00$35 to $850, $250 to $1,900, and $1,050 to nearly $4,800. What am I talking about? Gold's three biggest moves in the last century. And every single one of them was preceded by the exact same four signals. Not three out of four, not sometimes, not in certain conditions. No, every single freaking time. And right now, all four signals are flashing.

0:38And I'm going to walk you through those four signals, show you how the history across nearly a hundred years, show you exactly where we are today with gold, and then show you how Winston, my golden retriever, resident researcher, is thinking about position. So you're not the person who sees this in hindsight 3 years from now and says, "I wish I would have."

1:06Let me give you the four signals straight away. We're not going to hold you hostage yet. But before we do that, I appreciate this video is pretty information dense. I've also put together a full research report on gold, including the four signals, the frameworks, and everything else. You can download that, it's completely free of charge. Just join our free community at felixprehn.org/resource.

1:26There are about 40,000 people in there, glorious people who want to learn more about how the world really works. And then you can download the report in there. As I say, resource. The link is down below in the description as well, isn't it? We're going to march through each one of the four rules, prove it across multiple historic eras, and then map it to exactly what's happening right now as we're filming.

1:51Signal number one, numero uno, which is the thing you would expect from lunatic Latin American banana republics. You get to a point of no return on what? On government debt. It's not just that the debt is big. It's that it becomes mathematically impossible to pay it back. And at that point, you only have two options, and they're both pretty ugly.

2:22The first option is you default right now. You can do that if you are Argentina or some country run by lunatics, and I'm sorry Argentina but it is true for your history. Western governments, first world governments don't do that. They never ever default. It just is a really unpopular really crummy thing to do, right? So what do you do instead? Well, you just make money worth less.

2:58Let me show you how this has played out. If you're already thinking why is it going from bonds to gold and from tech stocks to this and then back to silver and all that, I put together a free training that walks you through exactly how Wall Street follows the trends from asset class to asset class and from sector to sector. Very easy thing to learn. You can learn that for free as well.

3:22In the 1930s, after World War I, when the world fought the Germans, I'm one of those, sorry about that. In the early years of the Great Depression, US debt went through the freaking roof. The government couldn't tax its way out. It couldn't grow its way out. So what did FDR do, el presidente of the time, in 1934?

3:47He confiscated private gold, executive order. Didn't even ask Congress for it. And then he revalued it. He just said, "I've taken it all and now I'm going to make it worth more." He literally took gold from $20 to $35. Best trade of all time, isn't it? He made 69% after stealing everybody's gold. Isn't that pretty clever? Again, that was an executive order.

4:19So what happened if you are somebody who held dollars? Well, you got robbed, didn't you, legally, because the comparison point to your dollar is gold, right? And gold went up 69%. And how much did the dollar go up by? Yeah, zero. So what does that mean? It means you lost a ton of money.

4:42Let's fast forward a few years. 1970, America was writing a lot of cheques the economy couldn't really cash. So they broke the debt maths again. The debt spiral was the trigger. And if you go forward to the 2000s, what happened after the dot-com bust? Iraq war spending was there, right? And what happened is US debt basically doubled. The government backstopped everything, right?

5:11The banks, because my banking friends really needed the bailout, the insurers, because insurers are basically banks, the mortgage companies, which are basically banks, and they just bailed them all out. Debt doubled and gold went from $250 to $1,900.

5:31Bill the Almighty, I did not have anything to do with a gold increase, gave us a great gold run. And today, the US national debt is heading towards $40 trillion, which is close to $300,000 per household, by the way, which is 6 times the average household income. No one's ever going to pay back $40 trillion in debt. They're not even going to stop adding to it. So what do they do?

6:01What is signal number two? They change the rules. They hold a press conference and they say, "Hey everyone, we're about to restructure the entire monetary system because we've been irresponsible." FDR made it illegal for Americans to own gold. Think about that for a second, the government literally criminalising ownership of real money. You got caught holding gold, you faced a fine of $10,000, which would be like $200,000 today, or 10 years in prison. The government essentially rewrote the deal between citizens and their money.

6:38Nixon goes on television August 15th. I told you they do it in the middle of August when you're all on holiday. And it was a Sunday just to make sure you weren't paying attention. And he nixes the gold standard. He didn't want to say, "Okay, all right, all right, game's out. We printed too much money. The dollar is worthless. We haven't got enough gold." Nixon said, "I am going to temporarily suspend the gold standard." It's been 55 years.

7:09So what happens to the good old US dollar after Nixon nicks the gold standard? The US dollar dropped 30% over the next decade. Gold went from $35 to $850, which is a 2,300% trade. Even the meme stock lunatics are going, "Oh, that's interesting. Can I do that? Can I do that by Friday? Are there options on this?"

7:40This is probably the most important shift that people don't really understand. 2008 to 2010, when my friends the responsible bankers, I was going to say rigged the credit rating agencies, but of course that is not true because nobody ever got arrested for it. It's just when the housing market magically imploded because a few bankers came up with some schemes to pay themselves massive bonuses.

8:08So how did the Fed fix it? They didn't want to print money because that sounds like it's going to cause inflation. So they came up with something different. They call it quantitative easing. What does that mean? It means you print money. They literally created trillions of dollars out of thin air and then they used that money that they printed and then they buy with it the bonds, or they were called mortgage-backed securities at the time.

8:37The garbage that the bankers and the great credit agencies had created to pay themselves millions and billions of dollars in bonuses, because we have no gold standard. They just said we can just make it up, we can just print as much as we want and then we can buy all this rubbish that we've been creating the last two years and bail ourselves out. What happened to gold? Double.

8:56And look at where we are right now. Look at what's happening right now. The US government has passed something called the Genius Act, not an accurate reflection of the ability of those in government. And it requires, and it's a little complicated, but it's really important, it requires stablecoins to be backed with what? Stablecoins must by law be backed with US debt. It's a mechanism to create artificial demand for US government debt. So they are using the crypto ecosystem to fund the deficit through the back door by regulation.

9:43The other thing they're doing is inflation is still high, right? Whatever they tell you, inflation is there. I think you know it, you can feel it, right? They're cutting rates. They're doing the opposite of what we were taught. I'm an economics economist and we were taught the opposite of what these guys are doing. And they're not doing it in one dramatic mid-August Sunday speech like Nixon, across multiple policy channels, and it's complicated and nobody really wants to read this stuff. It's boring.

10:13And every single time they've changed the rules like they're just doing now, signal three kicked in almost immediately. Signal number three is what? Your savings account starts what? Going up, down. Yeah, starts losing you money. And that's the one that hits people where they live, because most people think I have money in the bank, it's safe, it earns a little bit of interest, I'm being responsible. I'm not gambling on this crazy stock market or gold or silver.

10:50Let me explain why keeping cash right now is the worst thing in the world. Because we actually have negative interest. Say your bank pays you how much does it pay you? 2%, 3%, maybe 4% if you're one of those neo banks, online digital things. But the cost of living, groceries, rent, gas, insurance, how much is that going up by? I guess would be at least 6%. If you were living a slightly more luxurious life, it's actually going up a heck of a lot more.

11:19Say you have $1,000. The $1,000 becomes $1,020. But inflation would steal 6% from your account, which means you go to $940, which means your total of responsible saving means what? You've lost $40. It doesn't sound like a lot, but it's 4% every single freaking year. That even though your balance goes up, what you can buy with it goes down. And if you think this is a temporary thing, after Nixon's move, inflation went up to how much? 14%. Savings accounts and bonds were paying a lot less.

12:022008, what did the Fed do? They took interest rates to basically zero. So rates were at zero, which sounded great, right? Because you could buy a really big house and it didn't cost you a lot, and a lot of your pension funds have these things in it called TIPS and treasury bonds and stuff that's got fixed interest. The government was telling you lend us your money and we'll promise you get back less than you gave us. That's effectively what they're telling you. That's what they did, they robbed the pension.

12:34Now during that period till about 2015, what happened to gold? Gold went from $800 to $1,900. And where are we today? Fed's been cutting rates. Inflation is still high. Just like in the 70s, it's pushing money into real assets. Now, what are real assets? Hard assets. Hard assets are things like gold, it's things like real estate. Cash, on the other hand, if you hold cash, what are you doing? You're basically just sending that cash to the wealthy.

13:09The people who hold assets get richer. The people who hold cash send their money to the people who own the asset. And when people realise their cash is melting, they look around for alternatives. And that's when they notice signal four. It is when the boss banks, as I like to call them, which are the central banks, when they start to buy gold.

13:36Think about that. The people who print the money are exchanging that money for gold. What the heck's going on here? Pre 1971, there were cracks showing. France, Britain, the Swiss, they were converting dollars to gold as fast as they could because they could see what the lunatics at the Fed were doing, printing money that they didn't have any gold. Central bankers knew the dollar was overvalued against gold.

14:02And what happened in 2009 to 2012 after that financial crisis? Something very remarkable. Central banks flipped from selling gold to buying gold for the first time in decades. Emerging market central banks. So think the developing countries, right? Not just the tin pot tiny places, but the ones that are second world at the time. They started building gold reserves up. It was the institutional vote of no confidence in paper.

14:40And today central banks have been buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years. In 2025 alone they bought almost 1,000 tons. Poland, China, India, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Czech Republic, they're all diversifying away from the dollar. Goldman Sachs, the guys who look after the little people and really care about everybody and have a big bunny rabbit charity for orphan children. They've called this the most aggressive central bank gold buying cycle in modern history. They project gold's going to reach $5,400 by the end of this year.

15:18And of course that's just a number they're picking out of a hat. But they also aren't conspiracy theories, right? These are not the guys on Reddit. By the way, this is exactly the kind of pattern recognition, but actually way way way simpler, we work through with the Wall Street Mentors and Gomies. For the last 6 years, taught well over 20,000 people. Again, go to felix.org/getfree and move towards the getting free part, which is really what the goal is.

15:44So let me line up these 4 signals here for you and make them make sense. Signal number 1, government debt goes beyond the point of repayment. What happens next is they change the rules, from confiscating gold to printing money like it's going out of fashion to now forcing stablecoins to buy US debt. You then get essentially negative interest rates, not on paper but in reality. And then what happens in the final step? Central banks buy the shiny stuff.

16:301934, all 4 things happened. Gold was revalued 69% overnight. We look at 1971, again all 4 of these were present. Gold went up 2,300%. We look at 2008, again all 4 of these were present. Gold went from about $700 to about $1,900. And then you look at 2026, you're starting to see the pattern, right? Pattern in the comments down below.

16:56Now of course I'm not a financial adviser. I'm not telling you what to do. I'm not saying put all your money into gold. I'm not saying put a tin foil hat on and buy bullion with both hands and that kind of thing. So I'm going to do something for you that you might not like. I'm going to give you the other side of it. Gold is not the get rich quick trade. Gold isn't a meme stock. And the 1970s move took 9 years, right? And if you're looking for something to double by next Friday, this definitely is not it.

17:23The second mistake I see most people make, and it's important to understand mistakes, people go all in and they become a disciple of something, some religious thing. This is not it, this is an investment. So let me give you my 4 asset class framework which still applies. One is stocks, one is bonds and we can talk about whether there's an alternative to that. A third is real estate and that only makes sense if you have a little bit more money, obviously if you have $3,000 you can't buy a house. And then there is metal.

17:56And again this is just my view. I'm not giving you financial advice. I'm not saying you should definitely do this. I still think stocks are something like 50 to 60% of a portfolio. The metals part, a lot of people are saying 10 to 15% right now. Not a hard number. I think it can be more. I just don't think it should be all of it because it doesn't generate income. So we tilt in these moves and we might move a bit in there, we might move a bit from here to there, but you don't know for sure which asset class is going to win in any given year. And that is the purpose of the boring subject of diversification.

18:31The next mistake that I see people make a lot is that gold moves, it moves violently within a bigger trend. Critical, because in the 70s people don't tell you this but gold dropped 47% for 2 years, 1974 and 1976, the middle of the biggest gold bull market. Again that's why risk management matters more than conviction, that's why position sizing matters more than conviction. And I know it's the least exciting thing I could possibly tell you but it is also the most important, get your risk management right.

19:03Now Winston is an all in kind of a golden retriever, which is why it's good that we're a team, isn't it Winston? Because I buy the stocks, you buy the gold, right? Now you can buy gold ETFs which is the simple route. Something like a GLD, the biggest gold ETF out there, tracks the gold price, liquid, you can buy it through your brokerage. It can sit inside your retirement accounts, your IRAs, your 401ks if it's permitted. And it's good for people who don't want to deal with the storing of the physical stuff and they just want some exposure.

19:34There is a third route which I like a lot, which is gold miners. That brings more risk but the mechanism is kind of simple. And again this is not a prediction. If gold goes from, say it goes up to $6,000, that's about a 25% move, right? A miner has fixed costs. So if you think about a mining company and say it costs them $1,200 to dig 1 ounce out of the ground, their profit at $4,800 is how much? $3,600.

20:06Now if gold moves up by 25%, well their cost is still the same, right? It doesn't cost them any more to get it out of the ground. It's still $1,200, but their profit has just gone to $4,800. The profit is increased by 33%. You get higher risk, higher potential, potentially higher reward. You want to really understand that, watch the free masterclass, that'll explain quite a lot of that for you.

20:32You don't need to be a genius to benefit from what's going on out there. You don't need to be a genius to understand it. Want to take it to the next level of understanding? Go to felix.org/getfree and make sure you get that free research report out. Thank you for watching. See you on the next one.