Humanoid robotics stocks: how Trump's executive order reshapes the trade

0:00If you hold any tech stocks or AI stocks or even just an index fund, Tesla, Nvidia, semiconductor, whatever it is, maybe in your private portfolio or your 401k, what I'm about to reveal could potentially multiply your wealth or it could leave you watching from the sidelines as the biggest opportunity of the next few years. That's how big this is, is hitting us over the head. According to Politico sources, Trump's commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, is preparing an executive order on humanoid robotics. And Morgan Stanley at the same time puts out a timely 77-page report projecting a billion humanoid robots, a $5 trillion market.

0:33So to me this smells like the 100% Trump trade that we enjoyed on the rare earth stocks. Remember that video we did on the rare earth stocks? They all doubled or more than doubled. Now Winston's of course sniffed all this research out, so say thank you to Winston in the comments. But it's also not just about the buying, it's about knowing when to sell. Because you look at those rare earth stocks, they went up like 170%, right, all the ones we're talking about, and then a lot of them are back to zero.

0:58So a lot of people are sitting there with zero. The smart people, the trained people, the skilled people locked in the 100 plus returns. And that's where I want to get you to. And the only way you do that, by the way, is by learning the skills. So I've got something for you. First of all, there is a free workbook that comes with this video because there's going to be a lot of information. This is very information rich, not quite 77 pages but quite a lot.

1:19And then for those of you who are in our private community, I'm also working on a humanoid robotics research. We've already got one on robotics, but we're working on one on humanoid robotics. Literally the ETFs to look at, the best companies to look at, which stocks could be the real potential ones and the whole thing explained and put together. So check that out. There's a link down below to join the free community, which is where you will get the free workbook, which will still be insanely valuable. And then if you wish to take it another level, you can also do that in there. You don't have to, but you can.

1:48Now if you're wondering who this guy is rambling on, my name is Felix Prehn. I'm a former investment banker. I've spent years studying how Wall Street actually operates. And I'm also the founder of the Go Academy where we've taught over 20,000 students. I'm also the co-founder of trademission.ai, where we provide Wall Street quality news and data that's better than what you've probably ever seen in your life. And my whole retirement is now dedicated to teaching regular investors, which is what I used to be, and help you protect your wealth from the schemes and the shenanigans out there.

2:16Before somebody kicks off, but Felix, looks like you're working, you're not retired. Well, you might need to learn a thing or two about doing something that's actually enjoyable. Because to me this is tremendous fun. This isn't work.

2:27So what we've done for this video is I fact checked everything. I've analysed the leaked report. I dove really really deep into the 77 pages from Morgan Stanley on humanoid robotics and also dug deeper into the national industrial strategy of Trump from semiconductors to rare earths now robotics, and of course Winston did a lot of the hard sniff there as usual.

2:47So I'm going to break down for you these 3 critical things. One, the robotics revolution. Morgan Stanley says this is the biggest tech shift since smartphones. Literally forget the whole AI thing, it's all about robots. And then Trump's national strategy here, the exec order that could accelerate this by 10 years or more. And then your portfolio, the specific stocks, the sectors, and most importantly the rules to capture some of this upside with the lowest risk possible. There is always risk. Don't blindly buy something because I'm talking about it, that'd be daft. But hopefully this will be the basis of some of your research.

3:22So scale, right? Let me put this in perspective. Morgan Stanley projects a billion humanoid robots. That is one robot for every 10 people on Earth. Now the semiconductor content alone, just the chips inside of these, will be a $300 billion market. It's 15% of the entire global semiconductor industry.

3:40But where it gets interesting is this. Tesla is ramping up Optimus production to a million units by the end of 2026. I know Elon tends to exaggerate a little bit, but still it's going to be a lot of units. So the average humanoid will contain $2,100 in semiconductors per robot just in the tech. But they also have AI chips, vision sensors, motor controllers. This is way, way, way more complex than a high-end car. A high-end car has about $1,800 of sensors in there. So the robots are more complex, right? Much more complex. So how does it work? You need to understand the

5:10Basic economics before we can look at actually the stocks that we may want to buy or invest. So at the moment it costs about $68,000 to build one robot. Now that's going to drop to $40,000 by 2030 just because they're making more. It's cheaper if you build more. But that is still cheaper than a year of minimum wage labour in the United States. Just let that sink in.

5:35So the operating cost per robot is forecast to hit $2.60 an hour versus $5 to $20 plus minimum wage logs, generally speaking. And think about this, the robot will work 24/7. You'll need very little breaks maybe for charging. And you'll have no sick days. You'll have no holidays. You'll have no pension plan. You'll have no health insurance.

5:58And some of you might remember my September 17th video. I broke down the rare earth Trump trade. And we looked at stocks like UU, NB, USA. They rallied over 100% in weeks after that happened. I showed you the opportunity. Now some of you made some serious money on them.

6:17Some of you made some money on them as long, you lost the top, which was just a question of, well, you didn't have the skill about how to sell. And that's a problem because you see the losers, they held too long. They watched 100% gains drop to almost zero right now. Whereas others made a lot of money. So the opportunity was real, but without the selling rules, the gains evaporated.

6:39So this robotics trade is setting up in the same way. I think the opportunity is massive. Just my humble opinion, potentially bigger than the rare earths, but if you don't have a rulebook for taking profits, you're going to watch your gains disappear, just like those who held on to the rare earth stocks too long.

6:57Now skills can be acquired. That's the beautiful thing. You can learn it from somebody. If you want to learn it from my mentors, which is how I learned it. I didn't learn it from a book or a seminar or something, but from actually real Wall Street traders who've done this for decades. Then you're in luck because we're about to close the doors on our flagship programme which is called the Wall Street Protocol, which is literally the protocol of how Wall Street does it.

7:22And why we're closing it, because we want to make sure we can look after the existing students. So we're going to take a breather and look after the existing students there. But this is probably the final chance, pretty sure the final chance, to actually enrol in that for quite some time. So if you want to do that you can book a free strategy call with my team, felix.org/freedom, because I hope it's going to get you to freedom. And it's a free call, 30 minute conversation just to make sure you have all the questions answered. Make sure this is the right fit for you. Make sure that learning from my Wall Street mentors is what you want to be doing with your time. So check that out. There's a link down below in the description for that.

8:02Now let's take a step back because in the 1990s the internet created literally, well, I say trillionaires, not quite, probably billionaires. But only if you sold before the dot com crash. In 2008, smartphones came out. Apple went from $12 to $200. A lot of people made money on that. And then 2017, Bitcoin went from $1,000 to $20,000. And you could say some of the sellers won. Yes, they did. It then went back down to $3,000. And of course now it's come up again. So long enough time frame, that particular example, it worked.

8:40But for stocks that isn't always the case. You see, because often the early companies in a new technology go bankrupt. Seriously, 90% of all the new companies from a new technology go out of business. Look at the dot com companies. Look at the companies that invented the car or the EV companies. It's about that ratio.

9:00So we tend to see this. We have this massive tech shift, which is what we're seeing right now. You get the early adopters who make a lot of money. The late adopters get crushed and then those with actual hardcore selling rules, they get to keep their gains. Morgan Stanley calls this a pivotal chapter even in human history. So the Trump executive order could be the catalyst that accelerates adoption by 10 years.

9:24But most investors are going to do what they always do. They're going to buy and hold, which means they typically get destroyed. Buy and hold, by the way, it's brilliant. Buy the S&P 500. You can buy and hold that forever. It's very likely to make you money. VU or SPY or whatever. But with individual stocks it doesn't necessarily work because the company could screw up. Management could be rubbish. The product could get replaced by a new innovation.

10:04So this is a thematic trade. Buy and hold is likely to get destroyed. Others are going to try to time the top. You can't. You don't know it's the top until it's behind you. And others will over diversify, make it so complicated that they'll be in 20 stocks or 50 stocks and they don't know what the heck it is, and that dilutes their gains. And others will wait for CNBC to talk about it, by which point the story is probably over, and then you become one of the late guys, you become the exit liquidity. I want to make sure today you're none of those things. Again, I'm not telling you what to buy, I'm just saying be informed.

10:36So in my approach there is only one way that actually works. We position ourselves for the highest best opportunities. We have a rulebook for selling. No hope, no guessing, just an automated rulebook. It's a system we can use all the time. So if you want to learn that, book a free call with us at felix.org/freedom. But let's get back to Trump and most importantly how we position our portfolios to potentially profit from this.

11:00So big picture, billion robots. But here is what most people don't understand. This is now, here is 2030, and then here is 2050. Right now we have 2,000 humanoid robots in the world. By 2030 that's going to be a much larger number. Morgan Stanley predicts 280,000 robots. So you get this very nice growth curve up here just over the next 4 years. That's by the way a 140x increase in robots. But what really happens after 2030? We get the crazy growth. And the chart will not be able to do this justice, but somewhere up here, if you break that up, will be the 1 billion robots. Crazy number, somewhere up there. Doesn't fit on the chart.

11:42Now, why does technology start slow? By the way, 140x is slow. It accelerates after that. So basically the way this works, if I zoomed out it would be this and then it would increase like that. That's the growth story here. 3 reasons. Tech needs to mature, AI models, hardware, manufacturing scale. The prices need to fall significantly for this to happen. Society needs to accept robots. Do you remember, I remember distinctly I was a teenager and the first people who had mobile phones, we called them names and thought it was incredibly offensive and rude. My brother got a mobile phone, only got a little stick from my parents. And that was just what happens with new technology. You also need regulations, you need safety standards and all that stuff. And that's going to take some time.

12:26But once the technology is proven around that 2030, 2035, prices are now below human labour costs. And the early companies have demonstrated that this actually is a way to work and can make you more profitable. So you're then looking at the real growth. You're looking at that installed base reaching that billion. It doesn't happen in one year. Morgan Stanley thinks we're going to ship about 90 million robots per year and that's how we get to that billion number out there.

12:52So what's this catalyst? What's this strategy here from Trump? What I just showed you could happen 5 to 10 years faster because rumour has it that Trump is preparing an executive order on humanoid robotics. And that's not a random thing. It's part of a comprehensive national industrial strategy that Trump has been building since he came into office, maybe even before.

13:12And the first part of that was the chips act. Well, that was obviously a Biden idea, but they are using that money in a way that was not originally envisaged. So they're giving it to companies in a different way. But essentially what they're doing is they're creating domestic fab expansions, actually making them. They're putting money into rare earth production, literally investing in these companies, guaranteeing them prices to reduce overseas dependence. And also basically arm twisting companies to build AI infrastructure, data centres, power grids, AI chip production in the US. And if you don't, we're going to tariff you. If you do, we're going to give you money. So it's a carrot and stick approach.

13:52So these 4 pillars matter because they are actually interconnected. You can't build a humanoid robot without semiconductors. You can't build semiconductors without rare earths. You can't power AI without massive data centres. It's an ecosystem. It needs to work together. And Trump understands this. He also understands that whoever dominates robotics and AI and semiconductors will dominate the global economy both in terms of economy but also military. So this is not a free market play. This is a national strategy play by the US.

14:22Now we know that the department of commerce is meeting with Tesla. The department of transportation is setting up a robotics work group. So this is government industry coordination at the highest level.

15:18And the executive order will likely include, and this is my humble opinion, this is my guess essentially based on my research, so don't take this as fact. Domestic production incentives. That could be tax breaks, grants for US manufacturing, but it has to be made locally. And that's the other thing. So they can do more than just give incentives. They can require US-made components, US-made robots for government contracts. And that's going to be a big big big industry because I can tell you the military, security services, rescue, all that stuff is going to want a lot of these.

15:55And they're also going to give, in my humble opinion, R&D funding, billions of dollars for robotics research, similar to the chips act. They might take stakes in these companies. They're also going to fast track regulation because this is about speed and other countries are faster. You know who I'm talking about. They're going to hand out military robot contracts and that'll be a carrot basically saying look we're going to overpay for these and that's how you can build out your business as long as you build it in the US.

16:22So essentially all of this signals to private investors there is money to be made here. Look at what the chips act did to stocks like Nvidia, AMD, TSM. TSM alone rallied a couple hundred per cent. We saw the rare earths after Trump's election. MP, NB, USA, they're all up 100% plus in weeks. So the robotics executive order could create the same outcome and then institutional money flows. And that's always what I track. I always look at where is the institutional money flowing because that's what it's all about.

16:55Now Tesla is definitely one of the stocks to watch out for here because they are possibly going to produce more robots than anybody else by the end of 2026. And why does that matter? Well, let me take you back a little bit deeper. Then we're going to look at, I'm going to give you a whole list of stocks to look into here. But Tesla did something in 2024, very early. They placed a massive order for something called actuators, linear actuators. You're going to hear a lot about this word. They bought them from China. They are the muscles of the robot. They control the movement. So a massive order means production is going to be ramping up.

17:32So Tesla has an advantage because they can manufacture at scale. They know how to build complex products. Cars are very very difficult to build at massive volume. A robot is basically a car without wheels. It's got electric motors, it's got batteries, it's got sensors, it's got AI chips, it's got power management. Tesla already does all of that.

17:52So the Tesla Optimus here is likely going to cost $20,000 to $30,000. Now you might think that's a lot, but what is the minimum wage in the US? It's more than that. And a robot works 24/7. Doesn't take a break, doesn't call in sick. So the payback period for a $30,000 robot is maybe a year. A little bit of maintenance, maybe a little longer, but that's about it.

18:15Now these robots are going to work in Tesla plants first, in warehouses. Think Amazon, Walmart, logistics companies. All that kind of repetitious task. They're going to do dangerous jobs, mining, construction, all that kind of hazardous space. And then they're going to be ultimately in every home. And you might think that's creepy and that's weird, I'm not going to allow a robot into my home. Well, people said the same thing about electricity, the radio, television, most things. So people are going to get used to it. It's just going to take a bit of time. And maybe you're going to get used to it a little later than others, but it's going to happen because most people would actually have a happier life if all the boring crap was done by a robot.

18:55So where are the opportunities then, other than Tesla? Let me break it down for you into 5 categories from the highest likelihood to the more speculative. Category 1 is the brain. Think about a robot. It's got to have a brain. So what is the brain of a robot? It's the chips. So you've got Nvidia. Their Jetson Orin and Thor chips most likely. These are specifically developed for humanoid robotics. Every robot needs AI processing and Nvidia just wins in the space. You have ARM. Every robot uses ARM based processors. Literally every single one for energy efficiency. So ARM gets a royalty on every chip. It's a picks and shovels play. And then you have TSMC. They manufacture the chips for Nvidia, ARM and AMD. So doesn't matter who wins, these guys benefit regardless. Again, picks and shovels kind of a play.

19:48Now category 2 is the vision. Robots need to see. They need high resolution.

20:40Cameras and sensors, otherwise they're going to trip over stuff and they're going to hurt people. Sony here has a 53% market share in image sensors. Their sensors are in your smartphone and your car. It'll be in the ripples. They have the best technology for especially low light, high resolution imaging. So Sony, likely a big winner here.

21:02We then have ON Semiconductor, ticker symbol ON. Again, they make image sensors for automotive and industrial applications. Very similar to robots, so they could be a winner here. There's also Ambarella, probably not a stock you've heard of before, but let me know if you've heard of ticker symbol AMBA before. They do vision processing for AI edge computing. Very small company, higher risk, potentially higher upside.

21:24But just think about it. Every robot's going to have 5 to 10 cameras. Front, rear, sides, depth sensing. So even if a camera is just $30 to $50 each, that's $150 to $500 in cameras per robot. Multiply that by millions of robots. This is a multi-billion dollar market.

21:42Third, you have sensing and movement. Robots need sensors. So they can touch, they can force, they can measure temperature, they can position themselves. Now there are a couple of companies that do this that stand out. Infineon, it's a European company. They're a leader in motor control power management. There is STMicroelectronics as well. I didn't put them in here.

22:04There's Texas Instruments, which I think I might own some shares of. I can't recall, but I like the business. They make analogue chips. So if you have a washing machine, anything with a switch on it, it's likely a Texas Instruments chip in it. They also make motor drivers and power management. They also made, there was a student calculator, amazing calculators. But anyway, this is the growth part for them.

22:28And then we have NXP Semiconductor. NXPI is a ticker symbol there. Again, automotive grade chips, robot control systems. There are a bunch of others we could look at, some overseas ones, but I think this is probably enough of a list here. Less sexy than Nvidia I say here, but every joint needs a motor controller. It is the pick and shovels layer, a little bit lower risk.

22:50And then we did have a 4th layer actually. All right, I'll write it out for you because it would be a shame to miss that information. So what is category 4? Category 4 is integrators. Weird words, I know, but basically these are the companies that actually build the robots. So who are they?

23:08Well, at the top you have Tesla, right? A million units by the end of next year. That would be my highest conviction play. There are some private companies which is not going to be useful for you, but I'll write it down in case they IPO. Figure AI is one. They have backing by Microsoft, Nvidia, and Bezos. And we also have Boston Dynamics. Hyundai is a big investor there. We have Agility Robotics. Can they work with Amazon? So again, these are IPO plays. The last 3, not particularly useful, so hard to invest in directly. So basically in that category, you've got Tesla. There isn't really much other choice there.

23:48Now then we have category 5, which is another way of playing this, and this is robotics ETFs. And for some people, a lot of people, that's going to be the smarter way of getting exposure. Broad exposure, no individual stock picking. Let me give you a couple of them. I'll just give you the ticker symbols. ROBO is one. And then we have BOTZ. That's one. iShares has one too, IRBO. You're going to want to write this stuff down. At least download the workbook.

24:14Diversification, less upside probably. But what do you want to look at there? Well, you want to look for the lowest fees and look at their holdings because it might just be that it's all just Nvidia. So you can look into it yourself.

24:28So for me, I don't like the word conviction really because I think it's a bit like an STD, hard to shake. Really it's all about where's the money flowing. So I'm not a big fan of that. But I think highest interesting place would be the better way of phrasing that. Would be Nvidia because they make the brain. TSMC make all the chips no matter who wins. Tesla, the only publicly traded company that's actually going to build robots at scale anytime soon. Sony for its vision sensors. And then there is Infineon, TI for analogue chips, motor control. So that basically would give you, that would be your own ETF. Again, I'm not telling you to buy it. I'm just saying that would be one way of playing this.

25:12But the most important thing honestly is that you learn when to sell. People often pull out this stuff. Scale out. Don't sell all at once and all that stuff. I would be more tempted to just go with stops rather than this random selling at random percentage points. But the key thing here is that you don't want to let a big winner turn into a loser. So there's not financial advice, just some thoughts there. You want to protect your gains so you keep them because those are the rules that protect you and make your winners winners rather than keep them as losers.

25:41So timeline, this is the way I'm seeing this. I haven't got a crystal ball, but it's what I'm seeing. I think positioning before the exact orders hits the mainstream media could give us a nice rally that might pull back. Tesla is I think a very interesting play here with the ramp up. Probably supply chain is the biggest challenge there because they are dependent on Chinese supply chain at present.

26:04We're going to see a lot more deployments in early 2027. We're going to see a lot more competitors come out of the woodwork. Mainstream is going to start using these in 2028. So not just factories, but actually just out there in the wild. And then in 2030, it's going to be like the new mega trend. That's I think the way we're seeing it.

26:24So I think there's potential for some significant upside. It's not a promise. There is risk with everything. I'm just going to write this on here. There is risk. You can lose all your money. Don't invest money you can't afford to lose, right? Do your own research. Don't listen to some guy on YouTube.

26:42So action plan, look at have you got any exposure to these companies already. Allocate some percentage to the robotics theme. It doesn't have to be 10 to 20%. It can be some percentage. It could also be zero. So it's up to you. But what I'm saying is don't go all in. Make sure you got some selling rules. Monitor what's going on out there and then learn the system that happens for every mega trend. That's really what happens again and again and again. The market moves in patterns again and again.

27:10Now there are some risks on here. Again, something you might want to look at. Tech delays, regulation, foreign competition. Nvidia and Tesla are already valued pretty lofty because already some of this is baked in, some of it is not. And if we get a great big recession, who knows? But my opinion is the government's going to keep spending. So it seems a little bit unlikely.

27:32So if you got some value out of this, go to the free community, download yourself the workbook. If you want to get the full research report, I'm still working on that, that's going to come out in the next couple of days as well. Join the premium community, there's a link below the video as well to do that. And that's a paid community because we provide some tremendous value there. And there is a robotics research report in there already, but we're going to keep providing you guys value on that, free and paid and otherwise.

27:58And if you want to take this to another level and you want to actually learn the skills and you may be frustrated with missing out on or losing some of the big gains you've had this year, then have another chat with us and see whether learning the real rules from my mentors, the people I learn from, the people I look up to could be the path forward for you. We teach strategy, we teach execution, and you can do that on felix.org/freedom. There's a link down below. It's a free course. And I wish you tremendous success and you got some value as well, even share it with people. All the best.