Petrodollar decline: how Cuba and reshoring reshape markets
Felix Nikolas Prehn explains why the petrodollar system is fading and how Caribbean mineral wealth could drive the next phase of capital flows.
Felix Nikolas Prehn, economist and former investment banker
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The petrodollar system, established in 1974 when Saudi Arabia agreed to price oil exclusively in US dollars, is gradually losing its grip as BRICS nations trade in local currencies and demand for US Treasury bonds weakens. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, traces the consequences: falling bond prices, rising interest rates and downward pressure on stock valuations. He argues the United States is pivoting toward friendshoring, securing energy access through Venezuela and eyeing Cuba, which holds some of the world's largest untapped deposits of cobalt, nickel and rare earth elements essential for batteries, defence and artificial intelligence. Prehn contends the smart money is watching the Caribbean rather than the Middle East, and that a weaker dollar favours hard assets such as gold and critical minerals. He advises reviewing dollar dependent holdings and long term bonds, and considering exposure to mining, infrastructure and supply chain firms in the western hemisphere.
In this episode
- Why the petrodollar shift matters for portfolios
- Gold and silver miner trades from the past year
- How the 1974 petrodollar agreement worked
- Bond prices, interest rates and stock valuations
- US friendshoring strategy and Venezuela energy access
- Cuba's untapped cobalt, nickel and rare earth deposits
- Mining, infrastructure and supply chain positioning
- Weaker dollar outlook and the case for hard assets
Transcript
If you own stocks or even just have money in a 401k, what's happening right now between the Middle East and a tiny island off the coast of Florida could either make you really wealthy or it could destroy about 40% of your money. What Wall Street isn't telling you is that this is not about oil. It's about the end of a 50-year system that's kept your dollar valuable. And why everyone is watching the Middle East and the news. The US is making a play for Cuba's hidden mineral wealth that most investors don't even know exists.
So my promise to you is this. By the end of this video, you'll understand why Cuba, yeah, Cuba holds some of the world's largest deposits of the exact stuff needed for the next 50 years of technology. And you'll know which stocks to buy, which to dump, and how to position yourself for what I call the great reshoring, the biggest wealth transfer yet to come. My name is Felix Prehn. I'm an ex investment banker, and I have seen myself from the inside and also through the eyes of my Wall Street mentors how these things play out. I'm also the founder of the Good Academy where my retired Wall Street mentors have taught well over 20,000 of you institutional strategies.
So let me give you the 3-phase wealth transfer framework here. Step number 1, what's happening right now, the petrodollar is dying. Phase 2, the great reshoring, where money flows next. And then phase 3, the new resource rush where you can now position.
And if you want to learn how to do that the same way that Wall Street does, we did it last year with gold miners. Just showing you a couple that we bought last year. IAG we found it at 6.71, it went up almost 300%. It's still up 180% right now. Or GAAU which we got into at 1.45 here and that also went up about 150%. Or SK which we got into at 11.75 and it's still up almost 200%.
I'm not promising returns, but I'm promising to show you exactly how we find these. And it isn't luck. It isn't hindsight. It is a framework, a set of rules that Wall Street's had for 50 years. And they don't teach it to regular Joes like you and me, unless we get very lucky and we land a job in a bank. So if you want to learn that, then join me on Saturday live and I will teach you this for about an hour and a half, maybe 2 hours. We're going to go deep. You're going to learn the actual rules and you can then apply that to what's coming next, which is what this video is about. You want to learn the rules, go to felix.org/training.
Show up for yourself. It is on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. New York time. It'll be live, maybe a couple of thousand of you. It'll be fun and you will learn a set of skills you'll keep for the rest of your life. That sounds like something you want to do, write skills in the chat or comments down below and join me at felix.org. The link is in the description down below.
All right. So briefly to get everybody up to speed, what is the actual petrodollar? Let me give you a really simple explanation. In 1974, Saudi Arabia agrees to sell oil only in US dollars. Why did that matter? Because it meant that every country in the world needed to buy dollars and own dollars. So what do they do? Well, if you want to buy dollars, you don't just buy notes because they don't pay you anything. You buy US government debt. And the result was what? An insane amount of demand for US government debt. So the US could just run this massive deficit and the world would basically pay for it.
So why is it dying? We have other countries who are coming up and they're getting powerful. The BRICS nations are trading in local currencies and the Middle East is forcing countries to find alternative trade routes. That doesn't mean the dollar is going to disappear overnight, but its power, its impact is gradually waning.
Now, here's why this matters to you. It sounds a bit boring. I'm an economist. Apologies for that, but it is really important to understand this. What it means is that countries can sell US Treasury bonds, which is just a fancy word for US debt, because they don't need as many dollars. So what happens then? Well, the prices of those bonds, bonds is debt, right, fall. If the prices of bonds fall by some weird economic causation, interest rates go up. When interest rates go up, stock values drop, which is really all you care about, right?
So the whole thing is about, well, it's going to harm stocks. And one thing I learned from one of my Wall Street mentors, worked in a bank for 20 years, he said to me, look, currency shifts are what creates the biggest wealth transfers in history. So make sure you understand how Wall Street deals with this because I tell you, we're going to make money out of this. The question is, has the last week or two for you been pleasant? And if it hasn't, then come and learn the skills to make it a lot more pleasant, which is really what the whole goal is here, right? So join us, felix.org/training. Link is down below in the description.
So what's going on with the US? What's the big pivot here? They are doing something called friendshoring and it's a strategy to bring supply chains closer to home. So the Middle East is being allowed to destabilise. And the shift is, well, the US has been this global policeman for decades and they're now moving more closer to home to like a regional gatekeeper. We saw Venezuela, right? The regime change in Venezuela opens up what? Energy access. Venezuela has lots of oil, the exact quality of oil that the US Gulf refineries are set up for. So it creates energy independence for the US.
And in effect, the US is now, wait for it, the largest oil exporter in the world, bigger than Saudi Arabia. The US has literally become Saudi Arabia. So who's that good for? It's good for the US, right, because they're collecting lots of dollars, lots of money, lots of profits on all that oil that they're selling. That oil doesn't have to come from the US. It could come from Venezuela. It gets processed in the US.
Now, why is Cuba suddenly reported to be the next target of the US? Well, what have they done? Well, they cut off Venezuela, which was the energy supplier to Cuba. They cut off Iran, which was a financial supporter of Cuba. So what happens if you get a regime change just 90 miles off Cuba? And why would you want to do that? Well, Cuba has massive mineral wealth, rare earths, and that might be news to you, right? If that's new, just news to you, write news in the comments down below. I'd obviously like to see how many people know this.
But you see the world is shifting to batteries, solar, new technology. And you see all the drones flying around the Middle East and Ukraine and so on, which is how wars are being fought now. It's all drones. They're all powered by electricity. Electricity needs batteries. Now the critical materials to actually make this stuff are cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements, copper, and guess what? Cuba, for example, is the 5th largest supplier of cobalt. They have tons of nickel. They've got loads of minerals. They even have gold and silver in there. It's just the mines are not particularly well run. No one's really digging it up out of the ground because surprisingly they haven't got much money for investments. I thought communism works.
So Cuba's massive deposits, literally among the world's largest, are for the exact minerals that the US needs for defence, for EV, for technology, gold and silver. They're literally untapped reserves that could bring Cuba back from Marxism.
And then on top of that, when Cuba reopens, who's going to build the ports and the mining and the energy infrastructure? Who do you think that's going to be, right? It's the same people that are going to rebuild Venezuela. US companies.
So how do you position yourselves as an investor for this? How do you benefit from this potentially? Don't run out and just blindly buy stuff. Join me first on Saturday because I'll break down for you in almost 2 hours exactly how the structure works, how we follow the Wall Street flows of money. That's all I do. People always tell me, are you this kind of investor or that kind of trader? I'm like, I just follow the money. What does that mean? Well, come and join me on Saturday. I'll teach you. But it's exactly how we found these little mining beauties here, right? We got in at the blue line down there below, and then got out at some point as well for a nice profit.
But as a framework, from a concept, you want to look at mining companies that have Caribbean exposure. You want to look at infrastructure and construction firms. You want to look at the service companies to those sectors. But getting the exact industry and then the exact company right is something that would go beyond what we can cover here in about 15 minutes or so in a video because as I say it's going to take me over an hour to teach you. But just think about that. You can learn that skill in just about an hour. Isn't that pretty cool? I think that's pretty cool. So come and learn that here.
But I do want to give you an action plan for right now. If you are really in heavily dollar dependent assets, the dollar in my humble opinion is going to lose a lot of value. If you're in safe bonds and maybe you don't even know it, maybe it's
In your 401k or whatever. Again, you want to look at that. Do you really want to own that? Because long-term bonds are probably going to get hammered. This is my opinion. Again, I'm not a financial adviser, I'm not a registered investment adviser, anything like that. Just an ex-banker economist who's sharing with you what he learned from his mentors.
But what's going to happen here is very likely a weaker US dollar, higher inflation, and tons of opportunities coming out of the whole new tech world that we're in. So what do we want to do? Well, we want to be in hard assets because when dollars die or currencies die, hard assets do really well. What are hard assets? Gold's pretty hard, for example, right? There are also other metals that are essential for this world we're now entering, data centres, AI and everything else.
And then you just want to look at the whole western hemisphere opportunity. So the reshoring, right, that has massive impacts for people involved in that in the US but also has a massive impact for companies that are highly exposed to those formerly cheap countries that everything was made in. So we're looking at infrastructure, we're looking at mining, we're looking at supply chain plays in the Americas.
But you see, most investors are watching the wrong thing. They're watching the Middle East right now and they're thinking, "Oh, this is all about oil." The smart money is watching the Caribbean. And this is not a shift that'll start tomorrow and end on Friday or whatever. It'll take 5 to 10 years to fully play out. And I believe early movers will capture the biggest gains.
We look at gold stocks. Where do they start to get interesting? Early summer, right? Early summer last year and then they did 200%. Look at something like the silver chart. This is the same pattern we're going to see for lots of other things right now where that volume down here starts to explode. That's where you are meant to pay attention. But of course, you probably didn't because nobody ever taught you, which is insanely unfair.
And we're going to fix that if you join me live. But you see, we went up 213% in 140 trading days. And that was not a coincidence. That was money moving into silver, right? And it almost doesn't matter why. As long as you know how to look for how the money is moving, you don't really care why. You'll just see where the money is moving and you're like, "Well, that's the opportunity." And then maybe you're curious and you'll figure out why.
But the people who bought early, who bought around here, what do they do? Well, they captured this massive 200% gain. What about the people who bought when everyone was talking about it in the press? Well, that was somewhere around here, right? What are they looking at right now? They're looking at a red portfolio. Is that avoidable? I believe so. Yes, I believe so. And I'll teach you the very things that make it avoidable for me in my humble opinion.
But either way, the wealth transfer has already begun. And the wealth transfer is something truly truly hideous and truly truly real. And most people put their head in the sand. And it is just that the value of your precious US dollars is going down. What you can buy with it is becoming less and less and less every week.
So if you are in safe investments, if you're in cash because you're waiting for this crazy market to do something different, we're pretty much all-time highs as I'm recording this, by the way, people still think the world's going to collapse. What does that mean? Well, you lose. If you're dependent on a salary, you lose. If you're dependent on savings, you lose. If you have some fixed pension, guess what? You lose. Sounds tough. And it's not fair at all.
But there are people there who make lots of money. Why is that? Because asset prices go up more than the dollar drops. So what does that mean? Well, you have a choice to make. Are you on the side of the losers who are going to say this is really really unfair and will eventually blame other people and scream and shout and get really heavily involved in politics and all that kind of distraction, or are you just going to join the winners?
So if you can't beat them, join them, right? So who are the winners? Well, it's the wealthy. It's Wall Street. It's the guys who've been taught how to move their money about into the right assets. And I believe asset prices are going to vastly exceed this value drop in the dollar. So when things are changing it is always an opportunity if you know which direction it's changing in. So if you only take one thing away from this today, become an asset owner, but the right kind of assets ideally.
And for that come and join me on Saturday, felix.org/training, and we'll teach you how we spotted these lovely little entries and how we're going to keep spotting these lovely little entries going forward. And look, I didn't promise you financial returns. It's not what we do. I don't say you're going to make X. I never say that. What I can promise you though is to just honestly teach you the rules and the frameworks that Wall Street's been using for 50 years because in many ways that's the real scandal, right, that there is no financial education.
But then you think about how do banks work? How do they make money every year? How do they stay profitable for decades? Okay, some of you say, "Okay, bailouts," and yeah, there are excesses obviously. But those are the outlier cases, right? They still make money most years. Look at the reports of like a JP Morgan or something. How many billions are they making every quarter from investing, trading, investing?
And those guys don't go to the office every day and say, "Oh, I don't know what to look for. Let's find this. Oh, this is an interesting stock. Someone's talking about this on social media." No, they don't do that. They have a framework. They have rules and they follow their rules and they follow them precisely because otherwise you wouldn't be able to scale a business like a bank, right?
So when you get employed by a bank, what happens? You get given and taught a set of rules. I'm going to give you that set of rules. Join me on Saturday 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. That's New York time. And if you got some value from this, share with somebody else. Share the training link with somebody else. And let's get everybody educated. I wish you all the best.
Did you know there is an invisible system that controls nearly every trade on the planet? And I don't mean supply and demand. I don't mean the Federal Reserve.