Sentiment indicators: why Wall Street banks warn clients

0:00This here pisses me off. And I'll tell you why. JP Morgan is warning their institutional clients. Bank of America is warning their institutional clients. Goldman Sachs are warning their institutional clients about the following that nobody seems to really understand. While we're all celebrating GDP data that is just fake, just nonsense. And it annoys me because the institutions always have this information edge, this understanding edge and it doesn't get passed on to us because mainstream media spews whatever the heck they want.

0:27So let me take a few minutes. I'm going to walk you through the data points. I'm going to put the charts on the screen here for you. This will be brief. This will be to the point. And it's not a doom and gloom video. By the way, there's some good news here, so stick around. This is not an "oh my god, it's all over" kind of clickbait nonsense. This is Winston's research and you know you can trust that.

0:49So what have we got? We've got 8 straight months in a row here where hedge funds are incredibly bullish. They're so bullish, they're not just using their own money, they're using everybody else's money too. They're leveraged to the hilt. Insane level of bullishness there. And that means there is risk because they can't get much more bullish. They can really only get more cautious.

1:10And then we have the S&P, 8 months of bull market. We've all forgotten about the almost liberation day, let's make American investors poorer again. That's all behind us and we're on this incredible rally. It's the longest winning streak since 2018. That year obviously was a good one, wasn't it?

1:28Goldman's got an indicator, it's their sentiment indicator. Basically, how's everyone feeling? Institutional money mostly, but also you and me. And guess what? It's stretched. It is stretched. What does that mean? Well, it means people are pretty freaking bullish and it's harder to get a lot more bullish, right? JP Morgan, they have a hedge fund indicator and they're saying, look, they're insanely bullish right now. I'll put the chart on the screen here for you. That's from JP Morgan.

1:52And then look, before we talk about the GDP number, which is what lifted the market yesterday, and I enjoy the rally, I mean I make money out of rallies, but that good news is something we need to break down because again it's not what you think it is. Look, I'm actually bullish on this market. Like, just be honest about it, right? I'm so bullish, in fact, I just literally just invested yesterday a million dollars of my own money on a strategy that is the strategy that institutions use. It's the strategy that the smart money uses.

2:18And again, it pisses me off. They literally don't think you are able to understand it and implement it because they think they're God's gift to money. And if you look at this, actually a viewer of mine, he wrote a very nice comment. No dig against this chap, he's obviously a nice guy. He wrote, I printed it out here, he said, "Haha, I'm trading on the VIX curve," which is one of the fundamentals of the way we trade, "very good indicator. I'd say the only indicator needed, the only one." He said that. And then he says, "Don't put investors into this. They would not understand a thing, right? You need to be basically a market maker in a big bank or a hedge fund, right?"

2:58And I wrote back, "Well, I think you're spot on, but it's good job our head coach is a market maker. In fact, I've got 3 market makers on my team, and my mission is to spread that knowledge and that strategy. And I believe we've broken it down in a way that is so easy to understand, a complete novice can understand." I think I could teach it to a 10-year-old and they'd do better than almost everybody else out there because it really is not complicated.

3:22So what my offer is to you is I'm going to walk you through how that works. You can judge for yourself. It's an experiment. I'm trading the way the big boys trade. I'm using a million dollars of my own cash. I'm risking that. I could lose it all in theory. Right now we would still have the lights on. Your risk levels might be different to mine, so obviously don't just copy trade me.

3:42But what I'm saying is I'm going to break down that system, how it works. I'm going to do that for you between the holidays. So, 27th of December. It's a link down below, felix.org/webinar, and you can sign yourself up for a free seat. 3,000 people have already signed up for that. It's going to be a big one. It's going to be a fun one. It's going to be a nice way to round out the year and spread the knowledge and quite honestly just prove those bankers on Wall Street wrong. Because managing your money well is not about being smart. I met a lot of bankers, they're not that smart. I used to be one. Come on.

4:45A lot smarter than me. Anyway, so sign up for that. There's a free link down below. Let's go back to the GDP data. So the market yesterday lifted very nicely. Brilliant. We're all happy about it. Why? Because the GDP data came in better than expected. So the US economy grew more than expected according to the government.

5:03Now, if you actually dig into the data, what is almost the entire GDP growth? Surprise. It's healthcare. What do Americans spend on healthcare? It's not actually the drugs or anything. No, it's health insurance, which is why we're holding UNH stock. Again, not telling you to do that, but it's done all right. Actually hasn't done that brilliantly. I'm still hopeful on that one.

5:25Why do you spend more money on health insurance? Is it because you just think the health insurers deserve a good year-end bonus? No. Because they increased their rates. So the GDP, the US economy grew because your health insurance got more expensive. Does that sound like just made-up data, useless data, or does that sound like a strong economy? You got to judge that for yourself, but it's a load of nonsense.

5:50And then the greed index is back in greed, right? And there is something out here which is, do you remember the Gordon Gekko, that lovely film Wall Street? The quote from him is the sheep gets slaughtered, which is you're the sheep by the way. That's the way they look at it from a Wall Street point of view, you and me both. And look, everybody is bullish. If you look at all the investment banks out there, every single one is bullish on 2026. There isn't a single outlier. Everyone's saying the market's going to go up and everybody is basically saying the same thing. It's going to go up 15%.

6:22Now, are these guys usually right or wrong? I don't know why these banks employ these forecasters, thumb in the wind economists, useless. But when everybody is bullish, it does concern me a little bit because I am also bullish and I'm thinking, am I part of the sheep? Am I going to get slaughtered? So how do we deal with that? We deal with that by understanding when institutions are getting worried about the market. You don't see it in the stock price necessarily, but there is another thing you can see it in.

6:50I'll break that down for you on Saturday, the 27th. It's essentially called the VIX curve. So maybe you heard of the VIX, is a fear indicator, but it's also got a curve behind it, which is where it gets a little bit more complex. I'm not going to lie to you, but it's simple enough to understand. So I'll break that down for you.

7:10So at the moment I'm pretty aggressively positioned, but if that indicator flips, if that indicator changes, and we've built our own on the basis of it and a bunch of 10 other things, then I will move maybe half my money into cash and be a lot more conservative. And most retail investors never do that. They don't know when to take profits, and that's what it would be for me, would be taking profits and going into safety. And I think that's really something. It's all about risk management. It's not actually about just finding the greatest latest shipbuilding uranium quantum stock in 2026. It's just about keeping these gains because we've got some beautiful years behind us. We want to make sure we hold on to that.

7:50But yeah, Bank of America says their investor sentiment is the highest since July 2021. And after July 2021, we collapsed pretty harshly. It's higher than the 2018 tax cuts. It's pretty insane actually. It's really only the 2010 we were a little bit more bullish than that, but it's pretty rare that we are this bullish.

8:12So what is that saying to me? It's saying to me, enjoy this beautiful rally. Take all the money that the market gives you. The government's going to print loads of money, that's going to go somewhere, as in the market. And if AI works out, I think there's a fair chance it will, brilliant. There might be some wobbles. I'm not saying there won't be. There will always be wobbles. And a wobble could be a 20 or 30% drawdown, by the way. Just a big wobble.

8:40But if we can handle those bigger wobbles better and we can be less fearful because we understand the structure and we understand the fundamental strategy that Wall Street uses to deploy their money, I think we can potentially have a truly brilliant and exceptional 2026. And that's what I'm planning for. That's why I'm running this experiment with a million dollars.

9:02So join me on the 27th after the Christmas holidays. Just roll yourself to the nearest screen. Be on time. It could be that the room is full, and therefore you want to be there on time. Don't be late. We're trying to figure out how we can make that room a bit bigger. At the moment there's a 3,000 limit and we've got 3,000 signups which is super exciting.

9:41Your guys' desire to learn, especially when I'm putting out something that the Wall Street guys say is too complicated for you, right? It's too complicated. You can't handle the truth. I think you can handle the truth. So we're going to give it to you.

9:55Winston says, what does Winston say? Winston, any thoughts, Winston? Any thoughts? He says, have a very happy Christmas and enjoy the days. I hope they're peaceful and calm and not stressful for you. And I hope to see you back on the 27th. All the best.

10:12Look at this number. That is $1 million of my own cash. Well, about half of it. The other half is sitting with the bank that is meant to send it and they are making money off it in the process. Bastards.