Tax refund rally 2026: how stimulus cash moves tech stocks

0:00Under these cuts, many families will be saving between $11,000 and $20,000 a year. And next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time.

0:11President Trump just made a statement about to trigger the largest tax refund season in American history. And if you know where to position yourself, this could be the biggest single wealth building opportunity of certainly 2026. Literally December 18th, the president declared that next spring will be the largest tax refund season of all time. And here's what Wall Street doesn't want you to know. Independent analysts are projecting $100 to $150 billion more in refunds than last year. Some estimates are as high as $500 billion flowing into pockets of people out there and companies.

0:48So the last time, this is where the stakes are high. The last time Americans got massive government cheques was the COVID stimulus payments. There was $100 billion that flooded directly into the stock market and tech stocks absolutely exploded. Everybody was a genius that year too, remember that? And the NASDAQ surged 49% in 2020 alone.

1:10So my promise to you is that in the next 20 minutes or so, I'm going to show you exactly when this money hits, which tech stocks are positioned to benefit the most, and the specific strategy regular investors can use to potentially capture life-changing returns. Because history doesn't just rhyme, it's about to repeat. Yeah, Winston Bio of course has done all the research. I used to be an investment banker, but that seems to matter a little bit less on this channel. And I've seen this play out before and I'm going to pull back the curtain for you without the nudity.

1:42So why do we do this? Well, Winston and I also founded the Goat Academy. We've taught about 20,000 students how to invest more responsibly. I'm also the co-founder of trademission.io where we give you access towards quality data and news alerts. And I believe that regular investors like you and me should have the ability to spot the same opportunities that institutional investors get to use to get rich, right? And if you agree with that, put agree in the comments down below.

2:08But the purpose of this is to teach regular people like you and me how to build real wealth in the stock market, not by gambling, but by understanding the massive economic forces that actually drive the market. So what are you going to get today? You're going to get the verified data on Trump's tax refund statements. You're going to get the historical proof of what happened last time America got these cheques, the current state of tech stocks, which specific sectors and companies stand to benefit the most in my humble opinion, and the exact timeline when to position ourselves, and the risk management strategy. That's the most important part. So there's no fluff, no theory, just actionable intelligence, the way you like it.

2:47So let's look at the actual statement here. Trump said, this is a prime time address from the White House, Trump made a very specific economic projection. His exact words says, "Next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time." And this was actually not political rhetoric like he normally does. Independent organisations are confirming this projection as accurate and actually backed by hard data. So we're talking about the filing season that starts in early 2026 when Americans file their 2025 tax returns.

3:18And the legislation behind it, it's important to always understand what this is all about, how this really functions, is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. It's literally called that. You can't make this up, right? It was signed into law July 4th this year and it made massive tax cuts retroactive for the 2025 year.

3:37So American taxpayers, this is what they're getting here. There's a standard deduction that increased $750 for single, $1,500 for couples. The child tax credit jumped by $200. The SALT deduction cap was raised by $30,000 if you earn less than half a million, which is obviously most people. And then there is also a brand new deduction of $6,000 for seniors if you're 65 years and older. There's a new deduction of up to $10,000 for auto loan interest. There is up to $25,000 deduction for tip income. And there is up to $125,000 deduction for overtime pay, doubles for couples.

4:16So the Tax Foundation estimates these 7 provisions alone reduced individual income taxes by $144 billion this year. And that creates the refund time bomb. So here's the mechanism that's going to flood the economy with cash, right? Take notes, take screenshots so you understand this. You can explain it to somebody else after this or just forward them the video.

4:39The IRS never adjusted payroll withholding tables after the bill passed in July. What this means in plain English is that every American worker has been overpaying their taxes for the entire year. Employers kept withholding at the old higher rates even though the law changed. When people file their 2025 returns in spring of 2026, the IRS has to give back all that overpaid money in one massive lump sum. This isn't stimulus payments. This is your money coming back to you that was withheld incorrectly.

5:28So how big are we talking? The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projects total refunds could increase by $100 to $150 billion. The average refund increase per household is somewhere between $1,000 to $2,000. Now the Tax Policy Centre estimates $125 billion reduction in tax and that would obliterate even all previous records for tax refunds.

5:52So who gets the biggest refund? It's not evenly distributed, which isn't fair. It is middle and upper income households that benefit the most. So 91% of households in the top fifth by income are going to see a tax cut, about $2,300 for those doing well, right? That's the top 20%. The bottom 20%, how much they're going to get? Well, very few of them are going to get anything at all. Why? Because the larger deductions provide bigger benefits to people with higher income and tax liabilities. So this is a tax cut for the top 20%, right?

6:27Now what does that mean though? The people most likely to invest this money are getting the biggest cheques. Because if you gave money to the lowest income earners, they would just spend it on stuff that they actually need to buy. You give it to the top 20%, they don't need to spend it. They've already got money in savings, so they're going to invest it.

6:46Now before we dive into what exactly is going to happen to tech stocks and which sector and which stock, if you want to learn the exact system that Wall Street uses to benefit from this coming rally and any other rally and actually potentially do better in crashes than the rest of us, then I'm going to spill the beans on something. An algorithm, a test that I'm starting this week literally with a million dollars of my own money and we call it Trend Monster because it's literally that. And a back test of 15 years which looks insanely good, but back tests are only back tests. Everyone always goes out there, oh I've got a back test, look at this, how much money we could have made if we executed perfectly with perfect hindsight and we had zero emotions. And I'm like yeah but that's just not the way the world works.

7:30So I'm going to from now on test the system live every week for my students and risk a million dollars doing so. And I could come out looking like a genius or I could come out looking like, well, I lost a million dollars. So if you want to understand why I am so excited about this particular algorithm because it's insanely simple to understand and use and takes almost no time at all, then join me on the 27th for live training where I'll break that down for you. I'll explain how that really works and why I'm so excited by this. And at the end of the training, you potentially join me in this experiment. Don't have to, but you can.

8:04Either way, I'm going to teach you how institutions actually approach the market and how they decide when they buy and when they don't and when they take on more risk and when they don't. That's ultimately what this is all about. So this is a completely new thing, super exciting. It is something we developed with our head coach Elliot who's a former market maker, one of the smartest people I know, and I'm super excited to share it with you. So if you want to join me on that, fenixruns/training, there's a link down below. It's on the 27th, just sandwiched between the holidays. So you should have the time and the mindset to join us and potentially make 2026 the funnest year yet.

8:42Let's go back to the last time the government put massive amounts of cash directly into the hands of Americans. We had a few of these examples. So in March 2020, the CARES Act handed out plenty of money, about $1,200 per adult, $1,000 per child. And then there was a second round of that in December 2020 where they handed out another $600 per adult. And just note down these numbers because these numbers were not that big, right? You always think, oh, small numbers, $1,200, $600. It's nice to have the extra money, but you wouldn't think that that would move the market that much, but guess what? It does.

9:18And then we had the American Rescue Plan in March 2021. That was up to $1,400 per person. So the total COVID stimulus that was dashed out there was $931 billion, right?

9:32So what happened? What happened to tech stocks? Well, the COVID era created the most explosive tech stock rally in modern history. The NASDAQ did 49% in 2020, another 28% in 2021, 76% gains in just two years, which is just extraordinary. It massively outperformed, and this is important to understand, the S&P. So the S&P in 2020 did 17%. Nice, but not 49%. Right, the FANG stocks absolutely

10:48Exploded. Apple up 82%, Amazon up 79%, Tesla up 394 glorious per cent, Nvidia went up 87% the same time. And there's a direct connection here. Stimulus money flowed into the stock market. This was not a coincidence. The data literally proves a direct causal link. All the research shows that of the $814 billion distributed in the first rounds here, about $100 billion went directly into the stock market.

11:12So the mechanism is this, why do people invest instead of spending? Well, first stimulus, most of that was spent on basic needs because people were getting unemployed. Second stimulus, only 22% of people spent it on basic needs because they were okay, they already had money. In the third stimulus, only 19% spent the money on basic needs. What changed? Economy was recovering. People had more security. They started thinking about wealth building.

11:35And it was also the beginning of the rise of the retail investor. The pandemic created this perfect storm. Stimulus cash plus free time from lockdowns and commission free trading platforms like Robinhood and so on. Average investors increased their trading activity by 90% after that first stimulus cheque. Just ask the chaps at Robinhood, right? They got the data.

11:55This is a whole brand new investor class that was born that entered the market and they had cash, and we can see it because retail trading volume spiked immediately following each stimulus handout. Not weeks later but within days. So studies found retail dominated stock portfolios experienced abnormal returns. We're talking significant movements within days. Now of course a lot of this was meme stocks, high growth tech names that are popular with retail.

12:18But don't just buy the COVID stocks because we had lockdowns, right? So people bought laptops at home, video conferencing software, Zoom, Microsoft Teams, Amazon, everyone bought everything online. People just spent endless time on Netflix, right? Social media got more view time. That was different. We have a lockdown at the same time. We're just getting free money. So the stay-at-home meme stock economy isn't going to react the same way. So yes, we have a proven playbook. We know the money is going to flow into the market, but we don't know which stocks yet. It is not going to be exactly the same playbook as COVID.

12:52So which tech stocks will benefit the most this time? Well, look at where we are right now. If you look at the Magnificent 7 stocks, they actually haven't had that good of a year. If you can believe me or not, just go into TradingView, type in MAGS, that's the ETF for Magnificent 7 stocks. And yeah, it wasn't catastrophic. It's still a pretty decent run from the beginning of January here to where we are right now. We're up 20%. It's pretty decent, right?

13:15But look at the NASDAQ. NASDAQ is also up 20%. So typically the big tech names, your Apples, your Microsofts, your Googles, your Amazons, your Teslas, your Nvidias, your Metas outperform, right? They're massive. They're $15.4 trillion. But their current valuation, thus their growth prospects are quite interesting. Nvidia's forward PE sits at 26 times. So that's the current price divided by next year's profits, right? Below the historic 45 multiple. Amazon's trading at 30, well below its historic 87 multiple. Google is trading at just 17, is the cheapest out of the lot, and it's growing.

13:50So there are some names here that actually look pretty cheap and could become the next massive meme stocks. Not telling you to run out and buy them, but just think about it. Amazon, right? The cloud business is dominant. What about Microsoft? Well, Azure cloud growth and AI integration makes people pretty excited. There are 54 analysts out there rated as a buy or a strong buy. Meta, well, AI-driven advertising, the more efficiency in that is improving their margins, right? So they're looking fantastic. And then you just have Google, which looks weirdly underpriced.

14:22Apple. Okay, I'm a bit concerned about Apple. That's another story. And Tesla, they get those robots out the door, who knows what the valuation could be. Now what about some other names? What about Palantir? Yeah, I think another meme stock rally and Palantir is entirely possible. They are delivering, valuation is definitely not cheap, but could continue to. And then you have some of the other meme stocks, your IONQ. The quantum space could do really well. I think robotic stocks could do really well.

14:50Just think about it. Retail investors generally like a story. They like a theme. They like a "I can feel this, sense this, touch this," right? I think Tesla could have a tremendous year. More people might buy cars. Think about that. Lower interest rates, free cheque. Why not get a free car? Right? That sort of thing.

15:10But what about the timing? So most refunds, write this down, they're issued within 21 days of filing for e-filers with direct deposits. What's the timeline? Late January, we should have the first wave of refunds. Those are the early filers. February to March will be the peak refund issue where the bulk of refunds get issued. We're looking at about $500 billion.

15:47And then you get the tax deadline, April 15th. That is historically the late, but if you look at the COVID data the stock market impact was immediate. It didn't come late. So we should expect the strongest market impact in February to March. So you might want to think about doing something about this now or at least in late January. I'm not telling you to buy anything or sell anything. I'm not your financial adviser. I'm not an adviser at all. I'm just a guy with a dog sitting here retired and enjoying himself.

16:15But there's another reason why I'm so excited about this. The economy is actually stronger now than it was in COVID, right? Loads of people were worried about being unemployed or were made unemployed during COVID. We're not seeing that. And given that they're giving most of these refunds to the middle and the upper income households, they're most likely to invest it. So it's a very different story that's potentially way more bullish for the market.

16:38So why are we talking about tech stocks? I guess that's just the default choice for growth oriented retail investors for some reason, right? People think you can't make money otherwise. Still my present best performer in my life portfolio right now is Victoria's Secret. They make polyester underwear. It's up 140 something per cent, right? Better than most quantum stocks. Have a look at IONQ. Yeah, not so much. IONQ in a similarish period is down something like 35%.

17:05I'm again not telling you to buy one or the other. I'm just saying people are weird. They always buy the tech thing as everyone talks about the tech thing. So we have to accept that. I'm not trying to be smarter than everybody else. I just look at where the money is flowing. So I'm looking at AI. That's the dominant mega trend. I'm looking at potentially robotics, things like drones. I'm looking at name recognition, right? Everybody knows Apple, Nvidia, Amazon. That's really what we're looking for here. You're looking for simple stories, big name recognition.

17:35So my top picks here, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, but you could also just do a broad play. You could just buy the QQQ. Just the NASDAQ will be completely fine. Again, I'm not telling you to do it. But that's just exposure without picking stocks and being wrong and being frustrated about that later on. It tracks the 100 biggest non-financial companies. So these are tech stocks basically. It includes all the Magnificent 7 stocks. It's had a pretty nice run up this year. Also looks very good.

18:02So it's lower risk than individual stock picking. It just captures a broad rally and it's probably what most people want to be doing if they want to participate in this. I'm not telling you to. I'm just saying if you want to. Now before we talk about risk management, if you want to go a little bit more nutty on this, the Palantirs, the APPs, the IONQs, the Reddits, the Robinhoods, think about the brokerages that'll benefit from this, right? They could all potentially benefit from this.

18:28So you could throw that in there and a bunch of other ones, but again don't try to be too smart. Don't try to find the one home run. Making money in the market is actually just about making repetitive gains and keeping them. It's not really about finding these enormous home runs everybody always thinks about.

18:45So for me it's all about risk management. I would look at most money in core holdings like QQQ or mega caps. You could put some money into some of the undervalued names out there. And if you want to speculate, if you want to go into some of the meme stocks, I'd make that maximum 5 or 10% of the extra money. In terms of timing, I'd look at now to January, mid-February, March, we want to maybe add to the winners, but really at that point start setting stop losses on core positions. I have a stop loss on absolutely everything, every individual stock I ever have. Index funds are different because capital preservation is always much better than being right.

19:20So what's the opportunity in a nutshell? $500 billion of refunds coming up. Way bigger I think than the COVID refund window. We've got about a month or so to position yourself. I'm looking at some individual stock names here, but you don't have to buy this. I think the smartest play is definitely QQQ here. And if you want to see how we're playing this, because we're going to play this here in a very different way with one very simple indicator that I've got on this chart here, which basically tells us is the weather forecast good or is it bad? That's literally all it tells us and it's

20:30It's a snapshot of what institutional money looks at and therefore I think it's insanely useful. The back test to this is so good I can't show you. I'll show you on the 27th if you join me there. Back test, of course, I never approve a future pudding, which is why I'm putting money into this. And I'm going to trade this live with a million dollars. I'm going to share with my students.

20:55It'll only be accessible to my students. Why? Because I'm going to be responsible, which means teaching you how it works, why it works, why it doesn't work, and not just giving you a signal because a signal is the most dangerous thing in the world. Gives you a false sense of you know what you're doing and you don't. And money is a skill like any other. Whether it's driving a car or hitting a ball or kicking a ball or something, it's something you got to learn and once you learn it, you'll have it forever and you can teach your children. It'll change your life.

21:22So come and join me on the 27th if you want to change your life. Felix.org/training is the link. It's also down below in the description as our Hispanic Spanish friends say. My Spanish is terrible. Gets worse every year. So I wish you a merry Christmas. I hope to see you after the Christmas holidays live on the 27th. Felix.org/training and all the best.

21:46If you own any AI stocks right now, what I'm about to show you could be the difference between protecting your wealth and watching it evaporate going into 2026. The AI stock correction has already wiped.