US debt and inflation: how a crypto-enabled reset works
Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how stablecoins, rate cuts and coordinated inflation could shrink America's 37 trillion dollar debt.
Felix Nikolas Prehn, economist and former investment banker
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US government debt stands at 37 trillion dollars, and this episode examines the argument that policymakers plan to shrink it through inflation rather than repayment. Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, revisits his earlier thesis that stablecoins funnel private capital into government bonds, replacing demand lost as foreign buyers such as China and Japan stepped back. He analyses Donald Trump's repeated claims of 20 per cent GDP growth, arguing this figure only makes sense if most of it is nominal growth driven by inflation. He discusses Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's public call for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and notes the Fed's subsequent rate cut despite a split vote and inflation running above its 2 per cent target. Prehn contends the same dynamic is unfolding in Europe, Britain and Japan, amounting to coordinated currency devaluation that benefits asset holders while eroding the purchasing power of wage earners.
In this episode
- Recap of the 37 trillion dollar debt and the inflation thesis
- How stablecoins channel private money into US government bonds
- Trump's 20 per cent GDP growth claim and nominal versus real GDP
- Commerce Secretary Lutnick publicly pressures the Fed to cut rates
- The Fed cuts rates on a split 9 to 3 vote despite above target inflation
- Europe, Britain and Japan pursuing the same easy money approach
- Asset classes Prehn considers positioned for an inflationary environment
Transcript
In late September, I told you about a secret plan to deal with America's $37 trillion of debt. I showed you how the government could use crypto and inflation to wipe away this debt. And I warned you that it would create the biggest wealth transfer in history. And in the last few days, something has changed. The people in power stopped hiding their plan. They started saying the quiet part out loud.
Trump is claiming we can hit 20% GDP growth. His commerce secretary is publicly attacking the Federal Reserve and the Fed just cut rates again even though they said they wouldn't do it. So if you hold any dollar assets right now, your savings, your retirement account, your bonds, what I'm about to show you will either protect your wealth or leave you holding the bag. This is not theory anymore. This is no longer a conspiracy as some people said in the comments. This is actually happening right now. By the end of this video, you're going to know exactly what's going on and how to protect yourself and your family and your wealth.
Those you're new here, my name is Felix P. I'm a former investment banker. I've spent years studying how Wall Street actually operates. I'm also the founder of the Goat Academy. We've taught over 20,000 students how to protect their wealth. I'm also the co-founder of trademission.io, which gives regular investors like you and me the same data, the same news the big players knew. This is all about levelling the playing field and I'm dedicating my retirement to educate hopefully a million people into their financial freedom.
Because here's the truth. The system isn't designed to help you, right? It's designed to help them. But when you understand how it works, you can use it to your advantage. And right now we are watching the biggest scheme in modern history unfold in real time. And most people have got no idea what's going on.
Now, if you're serious about your portfolio and your money, I give you one better. I'm going to do a live session for you on Thursday where you can learn live from me some of Wall Street's rules. Can learn more about how we take people to the stratosphere of understanding and skills and confidence. It's a free training, webinar, masterclass, whatever you want to call it. You can sign up for that, there's a link down below, felix.org/webinar, and all will be revealed on the live session. No replays, by the way. You got to show up. If you don't show up, you're not that serious, which is okay. But if you're serious, you'll show up. So grab yourself a free seat for that before that fills up.
But let me quickly remind you of what we covered in that first video just very briefly and then we go into the key stuff here that's showing us this is happening now and how to protect ourselves. So we all know America owes $37 trillion. That's $280,000 for every household, which is just crazy, right? It's mathematically impossible to pay it back. No empire in history has ever paid back debts this large. Rome debased their currency. Britain lost reserve currency status. Their currency literally dropped 50%. And America is facing the same choices right now that those ancient empires faced.
But here's the genius part of the plan. The government doesn't need to pay it back. They just need to make it smaller through inflation. Think about it this way. If you owe somebody $100, but then those dollars lose half their value, you really only owe them $50, right? So the debt number stays the same, but it drops in real value.
And in the original video, I showed you how stablecoins are part of the secret weapon here. So say people give a dollar to Tether, one of the big stablecoins out there, right? Tether then issues one USDT stablecoin, and then Tether takes that dollar you gave them, and what do they do with the dollar? Do they just sit on it? No, they want to make money out of it, right? So they buy US government bonds with it. They collect the interest risk-free for them, and it creates in fact a massive demand for government debt.
Now, this was important because countries like China, Japan, and India, they stopped buying US bonds because they saw what happened to Russia. Russia's reserves got frozen overnight. Right? Maybe you think that was the right thing to do. I don't really care. But if you're any other country in the world, well, you paid attention. So you stopped trusting dollar assets. But the crypto lot, the crypto people, they're happy to hold stablecoins because they're backed by government bonds. They think they're holding dollars, but they're actually funding government debt.
And then comes phase 2. And phase 1, by the way, is one of the reasons I'm cynical on the whole crypto thing. It isn't, I don't think it's decentralised. I think it's the most centralised thing the government's ever come up with. It's bloody genius, really. But what's phase 2? Phase 2 is inflation. The government prints money and it lowers
Interest rates. It makes the dollar worth less because now there are more dollars around. So your debt becomes less. Your savings also become less. Your salary becomes less. But the good news is asset prices go up, right? So the rich get richer. So if you're in stocks, real estate, gold, crypto, you win. Your assets inflate with the currency.
But if you're a salary earner, right, who is a full-timer here? If you are, put an F or an FT in the comments so we can see how many lifers as I call you we have in here. I used to be one of those. So you get paid in cash, right? Well, you lose. Your paycheque buys less and less every year. So how do we fix that? Well, we're going to explain in this video.
And that's the plan I laid out for you already in late September, right? A crypto-enabled debt reset plus inflation. It transfers the wealth from the salary middle classes to the asset rich, right? Look at who's running the government. Again, not a political statement. I was just as critical of the last government as I am of this current one. They all do what they do and for whatever reasons, right?
But there is new evidence and I want to show it to you because it's happening right now. On 9th December, Donald J. Trump gave a speech and he claimed something absolutely wild. He said the US is sitting on $18 trillion in new investment promises. Now, this was fact-checked and PolitiFact said this is nonsense. There is no $18 trillion in new investments.
But what's interesting is that Trump has a history of claiming America can achieve 20% or even 25% GDP growth. He said it multiple times. He just said it again. He genuinely believes it or he wants you to believe it that it's possible. Now, let me give you some context. Real GDP growth in America is 2 to 3% a year. A really great year or an exceptional year is 4 to 5%. A truly outstanding year. 20% GDP growth, well, that doesn't actually happen in developed economies. At least it hasn't. I'm not saying it's impossible. It hasn't happened, right? China did it in the 1990s. It's post-war reconstruction stuff, right? But modern America, well, infrastructure isn't all that modern if you're seeing it, but 20% seems quite lofty.
So why does Trump keep saying this? Why did he just say this to a bunch of business people and say, you guys need to deliver 20% growth? Is he delusional? Well, some people think that. I actually don't think he's delusional at all. I think he's very, very, very switched on. I think he understands economics and I think he understands psychology.
So here's what's going on. There are two types of GDP. There is real GDP and there is nominal GDP, a sort of economics 101 class here. Real GDP is the actual growth which means more goods, more services, real economic expansion. And then nominal GDP, well, that includes inflation. So if you have say 3% real growth and you had 17% inflation on top, well, you got yourself 20% GDP growth, right? On paper looks amazing. You can come out and say, hey, the economy grew 20%.
But in reality most of that is just inflation. Money is worth less, everything costs more. The middle classes, the lower classes, they suffer the most. But the rich, the asset wealthy, well, we get much, much more wealthy. Now, that is literally the game. Trump can claim massive GDP growth. The media will report it. People will think the economy is booming, but your paycheque, it won't buy any more eggs or groceries. Your rent will be higher. Gas will cost more.
But you know what will look amazing? What will look absolutely amazing? It's the stock market, real estate prices, gold, silver, Bitcoin, all the assets that go up with inflation or more than will do tremendously well. And that's what I warned you about in the first video, right? They will inflate away the debt. They will make the asset holders even richer, and they'll sell it to the rest of the public as economic growth.
So Trump's 20% GDP growth claim isn't a promise. It's a preview of the inflation they're about to unleash. And maybe you're a strong fan of Donald Trump. That's completely fine with me. I very much enjoyed The Apprentice. I've actually read his book. It's a very good read, I must say. I don't get caught up in the political rights and wrongs. I just look at it as how does this affect my money, my safety, my family, and then I act accordingly because I don't get to vote in your marvellous country. That is entirely up to you guys.
And you get to choose whoever you put in place and we then get to enjoy the 4 or 8 years of, well, comedy really that it delivers. But that's the case in all countries. But before I show you what's happening at the Fed, I need to tell you something that I mentioned very briefly. My team and I are launching something new, something what I think is going to be hugely beneficial for investors and traders who are serious about their portfolio, and we've been
Literally working on this months. And given everything that's happening out there right now, the debt reset, the inflation, the wealth transfer, I think this timing is very, very crucial, which is why we're working surprisingly hard to actually make this happen and put this out as quickly as possible. So I'm going to host that live session for you guys on Thursday. Sign up for that. I want you there because it'll potentially allow you to start 2026 on a very, very different footing.
So if you're serious about protecting your wealth, if you want to be on the right side of this transfer, join me. It's free. Felix.org/webinar and I'll teach you a ton. I'll give you some opportunities to go deeper into our world of learning and learn from my mentors and so on. You don't have to. Just going to give you a bit of transparency there. I'm going to walk you through there exactly what we've built, how it can help you navigate what's coming. But I say it's for serious people. So if you're going to show up and watch Netflix at the same time, don't bother. And as I said, there'll be no replays. I don't believe in this.
Now, back to the Fed. Trump's commerce secretary is a chap called Howard Lutnick. And on June 25th this year, Lutnick did something almost unheard of. He publicly attacked the Fed chair Jerome the money printer Powell. And here's what he said. He said, "Your job is to help Americans, not hurt them. So do your job and cut our absurdly high interest rates at your next meeting."
Now, this might not sound that crazy to you because politicians criticise the Fed all the time, right? Well, actually, that's wrong. Cabinet members don't do that. The Federal Reserve is supposed to be independent. It's supposed to make decisions about interest rates without political pressure and interference. Why? Because if politicians control interest rates, they will always push them lower. It's popular, right? Lower mortgage rates, lower car payments, right? Because lower rates make borrowing money cheap and they make people feel good before elections. So politicians always want low interest rates, but they also create inflation. They create bubbles. They destroy savers.
So after the disasters of the 1970s, giving up the gold standard and all of that, the US gave the Fed independence. The president appoints the chairman. Yes, this chairman Powell was appointed by Trump's first term, which people seem to have forgotten conveniently. And Powell is also a Republican. People also seem to find that odd, but it's the case. And the chairman is then supposed to make decisions based on economics, not on politics. And you could argue he's doing that. You could argue he's doing a terrible job. Doesn't really matter, but he's actually quite independent.
But Lutnick doesn't care about that. He said the quiet part out loud. He told Powell, "Cut rates. Help the administration do what we want." And then he said something even more revealing. He argued that the US government is collecting over $30 billion per month in tariff revenue. So that should be a factor in favour of cutting rates.
So think about what this means. The US government, the commerce secretary is saying, "We're collecting tariff money so we can afford to cut rates and stimulate the economy more through lower interest rates." But again, that's not how it works. You cut rates when inflation is low and the economy needs help. You raise rates when inflation is high and the economy is overheating. At least that's what I was taught when I studied economics.
Now, Lutnick's argument isn't economic. It's political. He wants lower rates because lower rates will pump asset prices, right? They make the stock market go up. They make real estate go up. They help people who own assets. I presume Lutnick owns quite a lot of assets because look who owns most of the assets in America? The wealthy, right? The top 10% own 70% of all stocks. The top 1% own 40% of all stocks. So when Lutnick demands rate cuts, he's not helping regular Americans. Politicians rarely do that. He's helping the asset rich. He's accelerating the wealth transfer. And I shouldn't complain about it. I'm going to do very well out of this.
But the surprising thing is that the Fed actually listened. On December 10th, just now, a few days ago, the Fed announced the latest move on interest rates. They cut the rates. So why does that matter? Why is that surprising? Because the vote wasn't unanimous. It was 9 to 3. 3 members voted against the cut. Why would they vote against it? Because inflation is above their target. They have this 2% target set in stone. At the moment, it's at 3%. The economy is growing. Unemployment is still low. So under normal circumstances, you don't cut rates in this environment. It makes no sense. You just wait to make sure inflation isn't dead before you ease off, but they cut anyway. And the statement they signalled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts.
So you see what this is. It's a compromise. The 3 who voted against wanted to pause cuts entirely. The 9 who voted for it, they wanted to keep cutting. So they cut once more, but they said we're going to slow down a little bit. So this is political pressure meeting economic reality. Lutnick, Trump, the administration, they want lower rates. The Fed knows that cutting too fast could reignite inflation, but they're still cutting even with inflation risks.
And the thing for you to remember is what happens when rates go down? Asset prices go up, but your salary goes down. Remember that. So lower rates mean cheaper borrowing. Cheaper borrowing means more people buying stocks, more real estate, they buy everything. They push demand up for absolutely everything. But as I say, it also means your savings account earns less. Your money market funds earn less. Cash is less attractive. So you're forced into assets to keep up with the market.
And that's the mechanism I explained. Make rates low, make cash unattractive, make inflation higher, and therefore force people into risky assets. And guess what? The people who are already rich on assets, well, they win big, right? The people who are just starting out, they mostly have cash. They lose the value of that cash. They lose purchasing power.
And look, maybe you're not in the US. Maybe you're one of our European or one of our British viewers or Canadian viewers, wherever you are. This isn't an American thing. It's not just the US government. It is happening everywhere. French President Emmanuel Macron, right, little Napoleon chap. He called on the European Central Bank, which is their Fed, to rethink its monetary policy. He wants them to do more to support Europe's economy. So he wants easier money. He wants lower rates. He wants printing. Why? Because Europe has the same problem. Too much debt, aging populations, slow growth, and they're choosing the same solution. Inflate away the debt. And the same is happening in England, Japan. They're all on to the same thing. They're looking to print more money. They're lowering rates. They're going to buy their own debt.
Because if everybody inflates together, well, guess what? Nobody loses status quo. If everybody devalues their currencies together, there's nowhere else to go. So the US quite likes it. So if you ask me, I think the US is going to put pressure on everybody else in the same thing because it solves their problem. Say the dollar drops 20%, the euro drops 20%, the pound drops 20%, the yen drops 20%. So relatively nothing has changed, just the middle classes and the already impoverished are even more impoverished and everybody else is having a great time, right? Because the asset prices, the gold, the stocks, the real estate, the Bitcoin, that's going to keep going up in my humble opinion.
So it's a coordinated global money printing extravaganza like we haven't seen since Covid. And it isn't a conspiracy, it's just an incentive, right? Everybody has the same debt problem. Every government has the same solution. Print, cause inflation, transfer wealth from the worker bees to the asset owners, rinse and repeat, collect more donations from the asset owners. I'm a bit of a cynic over here but that's the way I see it.
So the question is what do you do about it? Well, I put some solutions on the screen here. It's not financial advice, just telling you the way I look at it. And be invested. That's what I'd say. Index funds, a great place to be. I put VU on there and buy any other one too. Obviously you don't have to buy that. That's the S&P 500, one of the low cost funds there. Real estate, going to get lower interest rates, it's going to make a lot of sense probably. Gold, just look at the run up there. Silver, you could add to that list. Bitcoin, crypto, absolutely. Individual stocks, yeah, also just go for quality. That's what I would say.
What's a quality metric? We actually have a tool for that in our free community if you want to check that out, felix.org/resource. It's called Better Stocks GPT and it'll tell you basically whether a stock is a quality stock or not a quality stock, which leads the guy to come to your end conclusions. We don't tell you what to buy, but we give you the data.
And prepare yourself. Make sure you're confident with what you're doing. Make sure you understand this market. Make sure you understand your risk management. Make sure you understand this new world we're entering into. Because look, if you're an investor like me, this is the greatest, easiest money making scheme I've seen in my entire life. I think they had it in the 70s. It was very similar. And a lot of people made a lot of money in the 70s. And I'm staring at this and going, I just can't believe how good this looks for somebody who's got money. I also see how incredibly unfair this is for people
Who don't have a lot of money. And my hope is to help more and more of you guys make a lot of money and protect your money, which is the most important part. I think where most retail investors screw up, which is what I used to do. So join me on Thursday, Felix Prehn's webinar, to learn how to protect your wealth and potentially grow it. And if you enjoyed this video, share it with some people. This is not the sort of content that normally gets pushed by the algorithm because it seems a little bit out there, doesn't it?
It doesn't seem like mainstream news because, well, guess what? Mainstream news gets paid by somebody, right? I don't take any affiliates, any sponsorships, never have, never will, don't need to. So I just tell you what I think. I'm not saying you can't disagree with me. You can disagree with me. I'm not saying I'm always right. I haven't got a crystal ball.
But to me, this plan is just so beautifully laid out. And I think we can take advantage of it or it'll take advantage of us. So, your choice. All the best.
Two investors can put away the exact same $78 every single month, get the exact same market returns, but one ends up with $200. Congrats.